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Humidity: 62%
Wind: --
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No significant changes. Becoming more confident in springtime warmth, especially Tuesday, along with the potential for minor river flooding within the next 7 days.
1 Key Message 1
A brief round of showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder, late tonight into very early Sunday morning.
2 Key Message 2
Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation possible.
3 Key Message 3
Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible.
KEY MESSAGE 1... A brief round of showers, and perhaps a rumble of thunder, late tonight into very early Sunday morning.
Southern New England remains on the cool side of a warm front tonight, until a cold front passes by late Sunday. This gives our region a brief period of time within the warm sector of a low pressure moving east across northern New England Sunday.
Areas of fog and patchy drizzle finally ended for a time this afternoon, but are likely to return later tonight. With dew points expected to remain above freezing through Sunday, we're looking at continued snow melt during this time.
Expecting a round of rainfall ahead of a pair of fronts starting late this evening before winding down from west to east during the day Sunday. It could be late afternoon before this rainfall finally clears the Cape and islands. While it's not impossible for there to be a few rumbles of thunder given the observed convection farther to our west, thinking the time of day and year does not favor thunderstorms across southern New England and left them out of this forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation possible. Minor river flooding possible.
A thermal ridge is expected to build in further from the south next week bringing light S/SW winds. In response, 850mb temperatures rise to 10-15°C (5°F) through the week, supporting above normal temperatures. Highs will likely rise into the upper 50s and 60s Monday through Thursday for many spots. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with highs in the 60s with a some interior/valley areas potentially approaching 70. This runs round 20-25 degrees above normal. Immediate coastal areas will run a bit cooler, especially along the immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands given the onshore southerly component flow. Those mentioned areas will more likely stay in the 40s and 50s. Some guidance continues to hint at the potential for a backdoor front later Wednesday which could bring down temperatures, at least in northeast MA. Highs will depend on how far south this front extends.
The pattern trends more unsettled Wednesday onward with the passage of a few shortwave troughs bringing a few rounds of precipitation through late week. There is still uncertainty in the timing/coverage of showers on Wednesday. Thursday's wave will be more organized with a stronger cold front accompanying it. This will support more widespread precipitation later Thursday, likely rain to start, with potential snow mixing in for the higher terrain as the front works through.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible.
The extended period of warmer conditions does raise concern for rises in rivers/streams from the quicker melting of snowpack. Ensemble guidance indicates rising river/stream levels through the week. Ensembles show some locations, particularly on the CT and Merrimack Rivers, reaching at least action stage, if not minor flood stage within the next week. By late next week, ensemble guidance indicates 40-60% probabilities for CT river locations to exceed minor flood stage and low probabilities (< 15%) for moderate flood stage.
For some rivers across RI and eastern MA (e.g. Taunton River at Bridgewater), snowmelt could lead to potential minor flooding as early as Monday or Tuesday. We will also need to watch some of the smaller rivers, such as the Pawcatuck River at Westerly, the Assabet River at Maynard and the Shawsheen River at Wilmington for possible flooding later next week.
Southern New England remains on the cool side of a warm front tonight, until a cold front passes by late Sunday. This gives our region a brief period of time within the warm sector of a low pressure moving east across northern New England Sunday.
Areas of fog and patchy drizzle finally ended for a time this afternoon, but are likely to return later tonight. With dew points expected to remain above freezing through Sunday, we're looking at continued snow melt during this time.
Expecting a round of rainfall ahead of a pair of fronts starting late this evening before winding down from west to east during the day Sunday. It could be late afternoon before this rainfall finally clears the Cape and islands. While it's not impossible for there to be a few rumbles of thunder given the observed convection farther to our west, thinking the time of day and year does not favor thunderstorms across southern New England and left them out of this forecast.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation possible. Minor river flooding possible.
A thermal ridge is expected to build in further from the south next week bringing light S/SW winds. In response, 850mb temperatures rise to 10-15°C (5°F) through the week, supporting above normal temperatures. Highs will likely rise into the upper 50s and 60s Monday through Thursday for many spots. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with highs in the 60s with a some interior/valley areas potentially approaching 70. This runs round 20-25 degrees above normal. Immediate coastal areas will run a bit cooler, especially along the immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands given the onshore southerly component flow. Those mentioned areas will more likely stay in the 40s and 50s. Some guidance continues to hint at the potential for a backdoor front later Wednesday which could bring down temperatures, at least in northeast MA. Highs will depend on how far south this front extends.
The pattern trends more unsettled Wednesday onward with the passage of a few shortwave troughs bringing a few rounds of precipitation through late week. There is still uncertainty in the timing/coverage of showers on Wednesday. Thursday's wave will be more organized with a stronger cold front accompanying it. This will support more widespread precipitation later Thursday, likely rain to start, with potential snow mixing in for the higher terrain as the front works through.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible.
The extended period of warmer conditions does raise concern for rises in rivers/streams from the quicker melting of snowpack. Ensemble guidance indicates rising river/stream levels through the week. Ensembles show some locations, particularly on the CT and Merrimack Rivers, reaching at least action stage, if not minor flood stage within the next week. By late next week, ensemble guidance indicates 40-60% probabilities for CT river locations to exceed minor flood stage and low probabilities (< 15%) for moderate flood stage.
For some rivers across RI and eastern MA (e.g. Taunton River at Bridgewater), snowmelt could lead to potential minor flooding as early as Monday or Tuesday. We will also need to watch some of the smaller rivers, such as the Pawcatuck River at Westerly, the Assabet River at Maynard and the Shawsheen River at Wilmington for possible flooding later next week.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231-234. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ232-233. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231-234. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ232-233. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ254>256.
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