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No significant changes to the forecast. We now have high confidence in springtime warmth for much of this week, especially Tuesday, along with the potential for minor river flooding within the next 7 days.
1 Key Message 1
Any lingering scattered showers depart by this evening.
2 Key Message 2
Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation. Back to cool temperatures by Friday.
3 Key Message 3
Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Any lingering scattered showers depart by this evening.
A slow-moving front should finally push offshore this evening. Expecting gradual clearing for most of southern New England as drier air arrives from the NW. However, clouds and areas of fog are likely to linger towards the south coast, including the Cape and islands, pretty much all night. Above normal low temperatures anticipated tonight.
We continue this warming trend right into Monday night with drier weather.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation. Back to cool temperatures by Friday.
A mid-level ridge builds in further from the south advecting in warm, southerly flow. In response, 925mb temperatures rise to 10-14°C (7°F), supporting above normal temperatures for much of next week. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with highs in the 60s with a interior/valley areas potentially approaching 70. This runs temperatures round 20-25 degrees above normal. However, immediate coastal areas end up on the cooler side, especially along the immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands given the onshore southerly component flow. Those mentioned areas will more likely stay in the 40s and 50s. Some guidance continues to hint at the potential for a backdoor front sinking into the northern portions of MA, mainly northeast MA. If this front shifts far enough southward, temperatures would end up cooler in northeast MA relative to other areas of southern New England. Confidence still on the lower end with this given the lack of model agreement and there is some question on the south extent of the front/cooler air.
The pattern trends more unsettled Wednesday onward with the passage of a few shortwave troughs bringing a few rounds of precipitation through late week. A plume of above normal moisture will advect in out ahead of a more robust shortwave moving across the Great Lakes starting Wednesday. A weaker leading wave will help generate scattered showers on Wednesday. Thursday's wave will be more organized with a stronger cold front/trough accompanying it. This will support more widespread precipitation Thursday. Likely rain to start, with a transition to snow/wintry mix possible for the higher terrain as the front works through later Thursday.
Trending cooler for Friday behind the cold front. Confidence in the pattern decreases into the weekend with potential for a few systems to move through the flow bringing periodic chances for precipitation Saturday through early the following week.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible.
Elevated temperatures and dewpoints this week will lead to rapid melting of what's left of our snowpack, which eventually leads to rises on rivers and streams. Guidance continues to indicate a likelihood of reaching minor flood stage in the CT river valley late next week, and can't rule out several other rivers as well.
A slow-moving front should finally push offshore this evening. Expecting gradual clearing for most of southern New England as drier air arrives from the NW. However, clouds and areas of fog are likely to linger towards the south coast, including the Cape and islands, pretty much all night. Above normal low temperatures anticipated tonight.
We continue this warming trend right into Monday night with drier weather.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Above normal temperatures next week. Trending more unsettled mid to late week with a round or two of precipitation. Back to cool temperatures by Friday.
A mid-level ridge builds in further from the south advecting in warm, southerly flow. In response, 925mb temperatures rise to 10-14°C (7°F), supporting above normal temperatures for much of next week. Tuesday will likely be the warmest day with highs in the 60s with a interior/valley areas potentially approaching 70. This runs temperatures round 20-25 degrees above normal. However, immediate coastal areas end up on the cooler side, especially along the immediate south coast and the Cape and Islands given the onshore southerly component flow. Those mentioned areas will more likely stay in the 40s and 50s. Some guidance continues to hint at the potential for a backdoor front sinking into the northern portions of MA, mainly northeast MA. If this front shifts far enough southward, temperatures would end up cooler in northeast MA relative to other areas of southern New England. Confidence still on the lower end with this given the lack of model agreement and there is some question on the south extent of the front/cooler air.
The pattern trends more unsettled Wednesday onward with the passage of a few shortwave troughs bringing a few rounds of precipitation through late week. A plume of above normal moisture will advect in out ahead of a more robust shortwave moving across the Great Lakes starting Wednesday. A weaker leading wave will help generate scattered showers on Wednesday. Thursday's wave will be more organized with a stronger cold front/trough accompanying it. This will support more widespread precipitation Thursday. Likely rain to start, with a transition to snow/wintry mix possible for the higher terrain as the front works through later Thursday.
Trending cooler for Friday behind the cold front. Confidence in the pattern decreases into the weekend with potential for a few systems to move through the flow bringing periodic chances for precipitation Saturday through early the following week.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Expecting significant snowmelt over the coming week. Minor river flooding possible.
Elevated temperatures and dewpoints this week will lead to rapid melting of what's left of our snowpack, which eventually leads to rises on rivers and streams. Guidance continues to indicate a likelihood of reaching minor flood stage in the CT river valley late next week, and can't rule out several other rivers as well.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.
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