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Clear
Humidity: 100%
Wind: 0 mph
Boston/Norton MA Field Office
FXUS61 KBOX 150728
Forecasters: Hrencecin
•2 issuances today
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Updated marine section. General forecast trends remain consistent.
1 Key Message 1
Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern MA.
2 Key Message 2
Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening.
3 Key Message 3
Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday.
4 Key Message 4
Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Summer-like warmth continues today away from the coast while a backdoor front brings cooler temperatures to parts of eastern MA.
The unseasonably warm airmass continues to sit over southern New England today, with 925 mb temperatures ranging from 15°C (59°F) to as high as 21°C (70°F) over CT. Generally, highs once again will likely reach the low to mid 80s over parts of the interior, particularly western MA into CT. For eastern MA and possibly even SE MA though, a backdoor front is expected to move into the region sometime this afternoon, keeping highs near the coast in the 60s with spots on the Cape and far NE MA only in the upper 50s. Cloud cover is also expected to be persistent closer to the coasts, with generally partly cloudy skies further into the interior. The greatest uncertainty with today's temperatures lies with how far inland the backdoor front might push today. There is a chance that more inland parts of SE MA into RI may reach the low 80s today if the front moves in later in the afternoon, but if it ends up being more progressive earlier in the afternoon, highs may be capped moreso in the low 70s. The closer to the front itself, the more uncertainty there will be with temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening.
A weak shortwave approaches the region today as well, which will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms, particularly late afternoon and evening. Latest forecast soundings still have 0-6 km shear values greater than 40 knots, particularly in the RAP guidance. The latest HREF even has some members drawing out some helicity swaths around parts of western MA. MLCAPE values between 500-1100 J/kg around 4 PM this evening out in western MA with the combination of the stronger shear and very little CIN would be favorable for thunderstorm development that could even turn severe, however, mid-level lapse rates are quite weak. Anything that develops in the afternoon/evening hours would likely be quite limited in coverage before becoming more concentrated over CT, RI, and the south coast heading into the overnight period.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday.
The unseasonably warm temperatures aloft persist heading into the latter half of the week, and another shortwave (which appears to be a bit more potent) approaches late Thursday night. With this disturbance moving through, more rain showers can be expected especially for Friday. The continued cloud cover then combined with the showery/stormy conditions should also limit temperatures to being more in the mid 60s to low 70s for much of the region, with mid 70s still possible out in the CT River Valley. Low pressure to the south of the region will also help usher in the return of onshore flow over southern New England Saturday, which will really moderate temperatures; highs for Saturday may only reach the mid 50s near the immediate eastern coastline and the 60s over the interior. 925 mb temperatures Saturday fall to around 10°C (50°F) with this pattern. The backdoor frontal boundary lingers in the area through this 3-day period as well, so temperatures may change significantly depending on how far south the front slides in Thursday-Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 4... Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week.
Following this pattern, a strong cold front pushes through southern New England. This frontal passage may bring the risk for some thunderstorms Sunday, especially as the much colder airmass (925 mb temperatures down to around -5°C (23°F)) moves in, crashing into the much warmer one we've been seeing. Highs in the 40s and 50s can be expected post-frontal passage, starting off the week much cooler and notably drier.
The unseasonably warm airmass continues to sit over southern New England today, with 925 mb temperatures ranging from 15°C (59°F) to as high as 21°C (70°F) over CT. Generally, highs once again will likely reach the low to mid 80s over parts of the interior, particularly western MA into CT. For eastern MA and possibly even SE MA though, a backdoor front is expected to move into the region sometime this afternoon, keeping highs near the coast in the 60s with spots on the Cape and far NE MA only in the upper 50s. Cloud cover is also expected to be persistent closer to the coasts, with generally partly cloudy skies further into the interior. The greatest uncertainty with today's temperatures lies with how far inland the backdoor front might push today. There is a chance that more inland parts of SE MA into RI may reach the low 80s today if the front moves in later in the afternoon, but if it ends up being more progressive earlier in the afternoon, highs may be capped moreso in the low 70s. The closer to the front itself, the more uncertainty there will be with temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and storms possible again this afternoon and evening.
A weak shortwave approaches the region today as well, which will aid in the development of more showers and thunderstorms, particularly late afternoon and evening. Latest forecast soundings still have 0-6 km shear values greater than 40 knots, particularly in the RAP guidance. The latest HREF even has some members drawing out some helicity swaths around parts of western MA. MLCAPE values between 500-1100 J/kg around 4 PM this evening out in western MA with the combination of the stronger shear and very little CIN would be favorable for thunderstorm development that could even turn severe, however, mid-level lapse rates are quite weak. Anything that develops in the afternoon/evening hours would likely be quite limited in coverage before becoming more concentrated over CT, RI, and the south coast heading into the overnight period.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Milder temperatures in western MA/CT, cooler in eastern MA/RI Thursday-Saturday. Periods of showers and storms Friday.
The unseasonably warm temperatures aloft persist heading into the latter half of the week, and another shortwave (which appears to be a bit more potent) approaches late Thursday night. With this disturbance moving through, more rain showers can be expected especially for Friday. The continued cloud cover then combined with the showery/stormy conditions should also limit temperatures to being more in the mid 60s to low 70s for much of the region, with mid 70s still possible out in the CT River Valley. Low pressure to the south of the region will also help usher in the return of onshore flow over southern New England Saturday, which will really moderate temperatures; highs for Saturday may only reach the mid 50s near the immediate eastern coastline and the 60s over the interior. 925 mb temperatures Saturday fall to around 10°C (50°F) with this pattern. The backdoor frontal boundary lingers in the area through this 3-day period as well, so temperatures may change significantly depending on how far south the front slides in Thursday-Saturday.
KEY MESSAGE 4... Strong cold front Sunday ushers in cooler temperatures for early next week.
Following this pattern, a strong cold front pushes through southern New England. This frontal passage may bring the risk for some thunderstorms Sunday, especially as the much colder airmass (925 mb temperatures down to around -5°C (23°F)) moves in, crashing into the much warmer one we've been seeing. Highs in the 40s and 50s can be expected post-frontal passage, starting off the week much cooler and notably drier.
Upcoming record highs:
Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941
Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255-256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ255-256.
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