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Humidity: 71%
Wind: 15 mph
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No significant changes. Becoming more confident in springtime warmth, especially Tuesday, along with the potential for minor river flooding next week.
1 Key Message 1
Black ice could lead to slippery travel through Saturday, before turning milder this weekend with a few passing showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
2 Key Message 2
Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Black ice could lead to slippery travel through Saturday, before turning milder this weekend with a few passing showers Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Be aware that despite clouds hanging tough tonight, residual moisture and temperatures dropping near or below freezing could produce areas of black ice over more of southern New England, which may last into Saturday morning. We also can't rule out some spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle, but at this point we don't have the confidence that it will be widespread enough to justify another round of Winter Weather Advisories. For now we issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential, and if it becomes more likely, then Advisories can be issued this evening.
Otherwise, the weekend will feature milder temperatures, especially on Sunday as upper heights rise over region with increasing SW flow and we lose the low cloud cover a bit. Forecast soundings continue to show a deeply saturated environment which should keep clouds locked in on Saturday. A weak and fast moving low pressure system is expected to pass through New England Saturday night into Sunday morning and may bring a few showers, but rainfall amounts will not be impactful.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu.
Warmer weather looks to peak Tuesday when many areas will see highs well into 60s, if not the first 70-degree temperatures of the season in a a few locations. This is in response to the well advertised pattern change showing the subtropical ridge building to our south, but we are still close enough to northern stream to bring a few showers from time to time, most notably in Wed-Thu timeframe.
Main concern is the potential for minor river flooding per ensemble forecasts (now in 20-40% probability range) starting with smaller rivers sometime Mon-Tue and larger mainstem rivers such as the Connecticut later in week (Thu-Fri). Many areas still have a deep and water-loaded snowpack with depths as high as 10 to 20 inches and water content of 3 to 6 inches.
One thing we do have to watch is a backdoor cold front which may drop south into the region Wed-Thu (maybe as early as late Tue?). Looks like a classic spring setup with strong high pressure over eastern Canada. This may bring much cooler temperatures but there is a fair amount of disagreement among long range guidance in whether or not the front remains to our north (keeping us warm) or pushes south and brings cooler temperatures. As mentioned previously, it could be a typical situation where we have a very large temperature difference between northeast MA and southwest CT.
We do see a cold front moving through by the end of the week, however, which should bring some showers and an end to the early spring warmth, but nothing unusually cold, more like average for this time of year.
Be aware that despite clouds hanging tough tonight, residual moisture and temperatures dropping near or below freezing could produce areas of black ice over more of southern New England, which may last into Saturday morning. We also can't rule out some spotty drizzle or freezing drizzle, but at this point we don't have the confidence that it will be widespread enough to justify another round of Winter Weather Advisories. For now we issued a Special Weather Statement to highlight the potential, and if it becomes more likely, then Advisories can be issued this evening.
Otherwise, the weekend will feature milder temperatures, especially on Sunday as upper heights rise over region with increasing SW flow and we lose the low cloud cover a bit. Forecast soundings continue to show a deeply saturated environment which should keep clouds locked in on Saturday. A weak and fast moving low pressure system is expected to pass through New England Saturday night into Sunday morning and may bring a few showers, but rainfall amounts will not be impactful.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Springtime warmth next week may lead to minor river flooding from melting snow, but we also need to watch a backdoor front to the north, which could bring cooler temperatures Wed-Thu.
Warmer weather looks to peak Tuesday when many areas will see highs well into 60s, if not the first 70-degree temperatures of the season in a a few locations. This is in response to the well advertised pattern change showing the subtropical ridge building to our south, but we are still close enough to northern stream to bring a few showers from time to time, most notably in Wed-Thu timeframe.
Main concern is the potential for minor river flooding per ensemble forecasts (now in 20-40% probability range) starting with smaller rivers sometime Mon-Tue and larger mainstem rivers such as the Connecticut later in week (Thu-Fri). Many areas still have a deep and water-loaded snowpack with depths as high as 10 to 20 inches and water content of 3 to 6 inches.
One thing we do have to watch is a backdoor cold front which may drop south into the region Wed-Thu (maybe as early as late Tue?). Looks like a classic spring setup with strong high pressure over eastern Canada. This may bring much cooler temperatures but there is a fair amount of disagreement among long range guidance in whether or not the front remains to our north (keeping us warm) or pushes south and brings cooler temperatures. As mentioned previously, it could be a typical situation where we have a very large temperature difference between northeast MA and southwest CT.
We do see a cold front moving through by the end of the week, however, which should bring some showers and an end to the early spring warmth, but nothing unusually cold, more like average for this time of year.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250-251-254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ250-251-254>256.
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