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Humidity: 75%
Wind: 13 mph
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Snowfall amounts across NE MA were increased slightly. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast..
1 Key Message 1
Rain ongoing today will transition to sleet and freezing rain across the higher terrain heading into the evening hours, along with areas north of I-90. Precipitation expected to last through Friday morning. Greatest risk for 0.25"+ ice accretion remains in the high terrain of the southern Worcester Hills and southern Berkshires. Plowable snow more likely in far NE MA. Lingering drizzle as precip tapers off Fri afternoon.
2 Key Message 2
Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and increasing risk for showers Sat night into early Sun as a cold front approaches.
3 Key Message 3
Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain ongoing today will transition to sleet and freezing rain across the higher terrain heading into the evening hours, along with areas north of I-90. Precipitation expected to last through Friday morning. Greatest risk for 0.25"+ ice accretion remains in the high terrain of the southern Worcester Hills and southern Berkshires. Plowable snow more likely in far NE MA.
A low from the west will continue tracking towards the south coast today into tonight, bringing with it a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Rain is making its way through southern New England at this time, with rain slowly moving north and east, being somewhat suppressed in northern parts of the region by lingering dry air aloft. More rain will move in during the evening hours and into tonight where the forecast becomes a bit messier, as ptype will transition from mostly rain to more sleet and freezing rain. This mix will mostly impact areas north of I-90 along with the higher terrain in the southern Worcester Hills and Berkshires, where the colder temperatures towards the surface resulting from the shallow cold air will allow for refreezing of falling precip. As a result, the chances for ice accretions reaching 0.25"+ are highest there, which could lead to power outages in these areas.
Latest guidance continues to support more of a glaze of ice and sleet for northern MA, as 925 mb temperatures remain around -3°C (27°F) to -5°C (23°F), but 850 mb temperatures are closer to and above 0°C (32°F). Latest forecast soundings still have air below freezing extending up to around 5000 ft for northern MA for the first half of tonight, favoring more sleet. Past midnight, the guidance shifts to more snow as the air around 850 mb falls below 0°C (32°F) and the column becomes isothermal. Some sleet being mixed in with this snowfall cannot be completely ruled out. The latest HREF showed this trend well, favoring more snow for NE MA and down into Boston. Snow totals in NE MA could reach up to 4"; snow and sleet accumulations further south into the Boston area could range between 2-3".
Precipitation is expected to taper off heading into the afternoon Friday, but light rain/drizzle and some fog will likely stick around, especially in the eastern half of southern New England due to continued onshore flow. These NE winds will keep the lower level moisture in place over the area, leading to a mostly dreary day Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and increasing risk for showers Sat night into early Sun as a cold front approaches.
Surface ridge across New Eng Sat will move offshore with a S-SW flow developing in the afternoon. This will bring milder temps than Fri but certainly not as mild as 925/850 mb temps would suggest. Soundings show a rather strong inversion just off the deck with abundant low level moisture so expect lots of clouds with very shallow/limited BL mixing. So while it will be milder, the shallow cooler air will linger likely holding temps in the low-mid 40s. A cold front approaches from the NW Sat night and moves into SNE during Sun. A modest pre-frontal LLJ develops which advects higher PWATs exceeding 1" into SNE leading to some showers later Sat night into Sun morning, but widespread rain not expected. Then it should dry out by the afternoon with sunshine developing from NW to SE as the column dries out from the north. However, clouds should persist along the south coast as the moisture plume lingers here. Still a shallow mixed layer Sun but it's drier with westerly flow which should help to boost temps into the 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week.
A quasi-zonal flow sets up across the northern CONUS with a series of low amplitude shortwaves moving through the flow. A broad SW flow will allow further warming Monday with the potential for unseasonably mild to perhaps warm conditions on Tue and Wed. However, this is not a certainty as high pres will be across eastern Canada with a backdoor front lurking to the north. GFS is trying to push the front southward with shallow cool air draining south into SNE later Tue into Wed and GEFS overall is leaning on the cooler side. Meanwhile ECMWF keeps the front to the north with unseasonably mild temps. Interesting that AIGFS is all in on the warmth for Tue- Wed. We followed the NBM temps which has temps in the 60s away from the south coast. Confidence in temps is moderate and warmer temps will depend on front remaining to the north. 925 mb temps are pretty mild and it's not out of the question we could see a few 70+ readings in the CT and Merrimack valley both Tue and Wed if the front stays to the north. EC ENS indicate 20-40% prob of 70+ Tue & Wed. These warmer temps combined with dewpoints climbing through the 40s and possibly some 50s by Wed will promote accelerated snowmelt with steady rises on rivers and streams. In addition, a period of showers will likely accompany a cold front late Wed into Thu. MMEFS ensemble guidance from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate a low risk for some rivers reaching minor flood next week so we will have to monitor this closely. The cold front is expected move through sometime Wed night into early Thu followed by cooler and drier conditions.
A low from the west will continue tracking towards the south coast today into tonight, bringing with it a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain.
Rain is making its way through southern New England at this time, with rain slowly moving north and east, being somewhat suppressed in northern parts of the region by lingering dry air aloft. More rain will move in during the evening hours and into tonight where the forecast becomes a bit messier, as ptype will transition from mostly rain to more sleet and freezing rain. This mix will mostly impact areas north of I-90 along with the higher terrain in the southern Worcester Hills and Berkshires, where the colder temperatures towards the surface resulting from the shallow cold air will allow for refreezing of falling precip. As a result, the chances for ice accretions reaching 0.25"+ are highest there, which could lead to power outages in these areas.
Latest guidance continues to support more of a glaze of ice and sleet for northern MA, as 925 mb temperatures remain around -3°C (27°F) to -5°C (23°F), but 850 mb temperatures are closer to and above 0°C (32°F). Latest forecast soundings still have air below freezing extending up to around 5000 ft for northern MA for the first half of tonight, favoring more sleet. Past midnight, the guidance shifts to more snow as the air around 850 mb falls below 0°C (32°F) and the column becomes isothermal. Some sleet being mixed in with this snowfall cannot be completely ruled out. The latest HREF showed this trend well, favoring more snow for NE MA and down into Boston. Snow totals in NE MA could reach up to 4"; snow and sleet accumulations further south into the Boston area could range between 2-3".
Precipitation is expected to taper off heading into the afternoon Friday, but light rain/drizzle and some fog will likely stick around, especially in the eastern half of southern New England due to continued onshore flow. These NE winds will keep the lower level moisture in place over the area, leading to a mostly dreary day Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Turning milder with a warming trend this weekend and increasing risk for showers Sat night into early Sun as a cold front approaches.
Surface ridge across New Eng Sat will move offshore with a S-SW flow developing in the afternoon. This will bring milder temps than Fri but certainly not as mild as 925/850 mb temps would suggest. Soundings show a rather strong inversion just off the deck with abundant low level moisture so expect lots of clouds with very shallow/limited BL mixing. So while it will be milder, the shallow cooler air will linger likely holding temps in the low-mid 40s. A cold front approaches from the NW Sat night and moves into SNE during Sun. A modest pre-frontal LLJ develops which advects higher PWATs exceeding 1" into SNE leading to some showers later Sat night into Sun morning, but widespread rain not expected. Then it should dry out by the afternoon with sunshine developing from NW to SE as the column dries out from the north. However, clouds should persist along the south coast as the moisture plume lingers here. Still a shallow mixed layer Sun but it's drier with westerly flow which should help to boost temps into the 50s.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Potential for a few days of unseasonably mild conditions next week but have to watch a backdoor front to the north which would bring much cooler temps. Accelerated snowmelt will lead to steady rises on rivers and streams through the week. A period of showers accompany a cold front late Wed-Thu, then turning cooler towards the end of the week.
A quasi-zonal flow sets up across the northern CONUS with a series of low amplitude shortwaves moving through the flow. A broad SW flow will allow further warming Monday with the potential for unseasonably mild to perhaps warm conditions on Tue and Wed. However, this is not a certainty as high pres will be across eastern Canada with a backdoor front lurking to the north. GFS is trying to push the front southward with shallow cool air draining south into SNE later Tue into Wed and GEFS overall is leaning on the cooler side. Meanwhile ECMWF keeps the front to the north with unseasonably mild temps. Interesting that AIGFS is all in on the warmth for Tue- Wed. We followed the NBM temps which has temps in the 60s away from the south coast. Confidence in temps is moderate and warmer temps will depend on front remaining to the north. 925 mb temps are pretty mild and it's not out of the question we could see a few 70+ readings in the CT and Merrimack valley both Tue and Wed if the front stays to the north. EC ENS indicate 20-40% prob of 70+ Tue & Wed. These warmer temps combined with dewpoints climbing through the 40s and possibly some 50s by Wed will promote accelerated snowmelt with steady rises on rivers and streams. In addition, a period of showers will likely accompany a cold front late Wed into Thu. MMEFS ensemble guidance from the NAEFS and GEFS indicate a low risk for some rivers reaching minor flood next week so we will have to monitor this closely. The cold front is expected move through sometime Wed night into early Thu followed by cooler and drier conditions.
CT: Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for CTZ002>004.
MA: Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for MAZ002>015-026.
RI: Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for RIZ001-003.
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-251.
MA: Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for MAZ002>015-026.
RI: Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Friday for RIZ001-003.
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-251.
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