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Cloudy
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 13 mph
Gusts: 24 mph
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Updated Aviation section.
No significant changes.
No significant changes.
1 Key Message 1
Much cooler with periods of rain tonight into Thursday.
2 Key Message 2
Temperature roller coaster continues through next week with continued rain chances through at least Sunday. Drier and cool next week.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Much cooler with periods of rain tonight into Thursday.
Backdoor front has moved into NE MA with wind shift to N-NE and a sharp temp drop into the 50s. This front will push south and west across SNE through late afternoon with sharply falling temps. Scattered showers will be focused south of the MA Pike this afternoon and there is a brief window for an isolated t-storm across eastern CT-RI and SE MA where marginal instability will develop.
The front will set up south of New Eng tonight as strong high pres builds over the Maritimes. Low level E-NE flow will bring much cooler temps tonight into Thu with temps dropping into the 30s late tonight with minimal recovery on Thu with highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Meanwhile SW flow aloft overriding the cool air near the surface with deepening moisture in the column and weak surface wave tracking along the boundary will bring periods of rain tonight into Thu. It looks like the bulk of the rain will be later tonight through Thu morning, with some improvement in the afternoon as the deeper moisture plume lifts to the north. But still dreary in the afternoon with low clouds and patchy drizzle. 925 mb temps drop to 0 to -2°C (28°F) across northern MA late tonight into Thu so the rain may mix with sleet here at times but no impact expected. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50" expected with localized amounts up to an inch.
Cold front will begin to lift back north as a warm front Thu night but remain to the south. Stratus and patchy drizzle and fog will continue with temps remaining steady in the 30s. There is a low risk for localized pockets of freezing drizzle over higher elevations near the VT/NH borders where temps may drop close to 32F.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperature roller coaster continues through next week with continued rain chances through at least Sunday. Drier and cool next week.
Friday the pattern flips again as high pressure exits to the northeast replaced by low pressure crossing northern New England Friday and Friday night. This brings the return of warm, moist south westerly flow pumping temperatures back up into the 60s (low 50s along the south coast thanks to cool onshore flow). A few showers are possible on Friday but most will be dry. It's a brief warm up as the trailing cold front arrives sometime early Saturday bringing the return of colder temperatures and a renewed chance of scattered showers as the front stalls. This all then repeats once again on Sunday with a brief warm frontal passage followed by a more robust cold front accompanying a deeper mid level trough. Still some uncertainty on the timing of the heaviest precip, but a later Sunday/Sunday night period looks most likely. Moisture parameters are better with this round (PWATS over 1.25") and EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance indicate a 20-40% chance of rainfall totals AOA 0.5". Looking into next week a cooler airmass moves overhead and so while we should dry out, a seasonable to cooler than normal stretch looks on tap with highs in the 40s and low 50s.
Backdoor front has moved into NE MA with wind shift to N-NE and a sharp temp drop into the 50s. This front will push south and west across SNE through late afternoon with sharply falling temps. Scattered showers will be focused south of the MA Pike this afternoon and there is a brief window for an isolated t-storm across eastern CT-RI and SE MA where marginal instability will develop.
The front will set up south of New Eng tonight as strong high pres builds over the Maritimes. Low level E-NE flow will bring much cooler temps tonight into Thu with temps dropping into the 30s late tonight with minimal recovery on Thu with highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Meanwhile SW flow aloft overriding the cool air near the surface with deepening moisture in the column and weak surface wave tracking along the boundary will bring periods of rain tonight into Thu. It looks like the bulk of the rain will be later tonight through Thu morning, with some improvement in the afternoon as the deeper moisture plume lifts to the north. But still dreary in the afternoon with low clouds and patchy drizzle. 925 mb temps drop to 0 to -2°C (28°F) across northern MA late tonight into Thu so the rain may mix with sleet here at times but no impact expected. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50" expected with localized amounts up to an inch.
Cold front will begin to lift back north as a warm front Thu night but remain to the south. Stratus and patchy drizzle and fog will continue with temps remaining steady in the 30s. There is a low risk for localized pockets of freezing drizzle over higher elevations near the VT/NH borders where temps may drop close to 32F.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperature roller coaster continues through next week with continued rain chances through at least Sunday. Drier and cool next week.
Friday the pattern flips again as high pressure exits to the northeast replaced by low pressure crossing northern New England Friday and Friday night. This brings the return of warm, moist south westerly flow pumping temperatures back up into the 60s (low 50s along the south coast thanks to cool onshore flow). A few showers are possible on Friday but most will be dry. It's a brief warm up as the trailing cold front arrives sometime early Saturday bringing the return of colder temperatures and a renewed chance of scattered showers as the front stalls. This all then repeats once again on Sunday with a brief warm frontal passage followed by a more robust cold front accompanying a deeper mid level trough. Still some uncertainty on the timing of the heaviest precip, but a later Sunday/Sunday night period looks most likely. Moisture parameters are better with this round (PWATS over 1.25") and EPS/GEFS ensemble guidance indicate a 20-40% chance of rainfall totals AOA 0.5". Looking into next week a cooler airmass moves overhead and so while we should dry out, a seasonable to cooler than normal stretch looks on tap with highs in the 40s and low 50s.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ231-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ231-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.
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