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Cloudy
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 14 mph
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Updated Aviation section.
There is a marginal risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm this evening, mainly across western MA and CT.
There is a marginal risk for a strong to severe thunderstorm this evening, mainly across western MA and CT.
1 Key Message 1
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening with a strong to severe storm possible over western MA
2 Key Message 2
Unsettled weather continues into Wednesday and Wednesday Night
3 Key Message 3
Milder and unsettled pattern later this week brings showers from time to time along with warmer temperatures for inland locations.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening with a strong to severe storm possible over western MA
Short-wave energy embedded within larger scale zonal flow aloft will help trigger showers and thunderstorms this evening over western MA/CT. The latest Convective Outlook from The Storm Prediction Center places western MA and CT in a marginal risk for severe storm with a general thunderstorm risk elsewhere in southern New England.
The overall strength of synoptic forcing for ascent in the atmosphere will be on the weak side tonight. Furthermore, instability will be limited to the tune of 250-500 J/Kg of MLCAPE. While sufficient for thunderstorm development, these numbers do not present an alarming scenario for severe weather. Deep layer shear will be strong with 40-50 knots of shear in the 0-6 km layer. Thus, we have the ingredients needed for a period of convection.
If we consult the latest suite of hi- resolution model guidance, we find that 00-06Z (8PM-2AM), will be the best opportunity for thunderstorms across southern New England. Hi- res guidance keeps the most robust activity mainly along and north of the I-90 corridor. CSU ML probabilities give a 5-10% chance of severe thunderstorm wind gusts or large hail for western MA. Further east, lightning and periods of heavy rainfall would be the most likely hazards. Expect thunderstorm activity to wane after midnight as instability diminishes.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather continues into Wednesday and Wednesday Night
A wind shift to the west/southwest early Wednesday will support another mild afternoon in southern New England with many locations reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. The presence of a frontal wave moving over The Northeast will continue to keep things unsettled with intermittent periods of showers expected during the day Wednesday. A lull in shower activity is expected Wednesday afternoon, but a cold front sagging south will support an additional round of showers Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly along and south of the I-90 corridor. Latest model guidance resolves the most shower activity over the south coast of MA and RI. Chillier temperatures settle in Wednesday night with lows temperatures falling to the 30s by Thursday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Milder and unsettled pattern later this week brings showers from time to time along with warmer temperatures for inland locations.
Beyond Wednesday we're in for a big cooldown as 1040mb high pressure moves into Nova Scotia and surface winds veer to the northeast pushing a cold front the rest of the way through the region. This, combined with stubborn low clouds will keep high temperatures very cold compared to Wednesday, in the upper 30s and low 40s. This will be a 30 degree difference in high temperatures for some locations! The roller coaster continues on Friday as the front lifts back to the north bringing warmer temps in the 60s and even some 70s by the weekend. That being said, it remains a very chaotic and dynamic pattern with SNE sandwiched between a subtropical ridge and east coast trough so confidence in the temperature forecast is low to moderate. Same with exact timing and placement of any rainfall associated with these frontal passages and passing shortwaves. A generally unsettled pattern with scattered rain showers looks to hold on through the early part of the weekend before a more appreciable front and mid level trough move through around Sunday/Sunday night.
Short-wave energy embedded within larger scale zonal flow aloft will help trigger showers and thunderstorms this evening over western MA/CT. The latest Convective Outlook from The Storm Prediction Center places western MA and CT in a marginal risk for severe storm with a general thunderstorm risk elsewhere in southern New England.
The overall strength of synoptic forcing for ascent in the atmosphere will be on the weak side tonight. Furthermore, instability will be limited to the tune of 250-500 J/Kg of MLCAPE. While sufficient for thunderstorm development, these numbers do not present an alarming scenario for severe weather. Deep layer shear will be strong with 40-50 knots of shear in the 0-6 km layer. Thus, we have the ingredients needed for a period of convection.
If we consult the latest suite of hi- resolution model guidance, we find that 00-06Z (8PM-2AM), will be the best opportunity for thunderstorms across southern New England. Hi- res guidance keeps the most robust activity mainly along and north of the I-90 corridor. CSU ML probabilities give a 5-10% chance of severe thunderstorm wind gusts or large hail for western MA. Further east, lightning and periods of heavy rainfall would be the most likely hazards. Expect thunderstorm activity to wane after midnight as instability diminishes.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather continues into Wednesday and Wednesday Night
A wind shift to the west/southwest early Wednesday will support another mild afternoon in southern New England with many locations reaching the upper 60s to low 70s. The presence of a frontal wave moving over The Northeast will continue to keep things unsettled with intermittent periods of showers expected during the day Wednesday. A lull in shower activity is expected Wednesday afternoon, but a cold front sagging south will support an additional round of showers Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly along and south of the I-90 corridor. Latest model guidance resolves the most shower activity over the south coast of MA and RI. Chillier temperatures settle in Wednesday night with lows temperatures falling to the 30s by Thursday morning.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Milder and unsettled pattern later this week brings showers from time to time along with warmer temperatures for inland locations.
Beyond Wednesday we're in for a big cooldown as 1040mb high pressure moves into Nova Scotia and surface winds veer to the northeast pushing a cold front the rest of the way through the region. This, combined with stubborn low clouds will keep high temperatures very cold compared to Wednesday, in the upper 30s and low 40s. This will be a 30 degree difference in high temperatures for some locations! The roller coaster continues on Friday as the front lifts back to the north bringing warmer temps in the 60s and even some 70s by the weekend. That being said, it remains a very chaotic and dynamic pattern with SNE sandwiched between a subtropical ridge and east coast trough so confidence in the temperature forecast is low to moderate. Same with exact timing and placement of any rainfall associated with these frontal passages and passing shortwaves. A generally unsettled pattern with scattered rain showers looks to hold on through the early part of the weekend before a more appreciable front and mid level trough move through around Sunday/Sunday night.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231-250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231-250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ254>256.
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