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Humidity: 64%
Wind: 8 mph
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1 Key Message 1
Summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from the coast with scattered thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather.
2 Key Message 2
Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu-Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where it ends up.
3 Key Message 3
More seasonable temperatures early next week.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from the coast with scattered thunderstorms and a low risk of severe weather.
Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from both coasts as a strong upper level ridge builds over region from Gulf. Highs both days should easily reach lower 80s inland while onshore flow keeps immediate coastal areas in 50s to around 60. We also need to watch a backdoor front lurking close to northeast MA which could bring cooler temperatures there as well, perhaps into the 40s or lower 50s, but right now it seems like that front should stay to the north until sometime Wed night or Thu.
One thing we are monitoring is the potential for severe storms during afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly from 2 PM to 10 PM. Trough axis near eastern Great Lakes should provide sufficient lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms to our west both days, and some of this activity could survive the trip into interior southern New England given warm airmass in place and more importantly strong westerly flow aloft.
Tue actually looks to be the more interesting day with greatest potential for severe storms roughly along and west of I-91. Guidance shows decent instability (1000-1500 J/kg) Tue afternoon along with rather impressive mid level lapse rates (6-7°C (19°F)/km) that we don't see too often here and sufficient 0-6km shear of 35-40kt. This may be enough to bring storms into southern New England during the afternoon and evening with localized wind damage and hail being the main threats. Note both 3km NAM and RRFS are fairly aggressive in depicting a small line of storms moving SE across interior Tue afternoon, though HREF updraft helicities are focused more in western New England and lightning probabilities are in that area as well. However, CSU machine learning guidance does highlight much of interior southern New England with a low severe potential.
Environment still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed though several of the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. CSU and SPC HREF expand the low severe risk into more of southern New England, with guidance showing decent instability across more of southern New England (focused north and west of I-95 in CT, RI, and MA) with continued strong 0-6km shear (40-50kt) and better low level moisture (dewpoints into lower 60s). Mid level lapse rates are more marginal however (5-6°C (21°F)/km) but that could be overcome with sufficient instability. While overall severe threat remains low (and higher to west of New England) we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up.
Forecast becomes more uncertain later this week as we deal with another backdoor front potentially dropping south across New England. Details will need to be worked out regarding how far south and exactly how quickly the front will be able to push southward. Typically these fronts end up somewhere from central MA into RI, with summerlike temperatures continuing to its south (Hartford) and much cooler temperatures to the north and east. For now we are basing forecast on a model blend which helps iron out some of the uncertainty, but getting more into time window for higher resolution models will help refine forecast in coming days. Certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time.
KEY MESSAGE 3... More seasonable temperatures early next week.
A stronger cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60.
Confidence remains high in summerlike warmth Tue and Wed away from both coasts as a strong upper level ridge builds over region from Gulf. Highs both days should easily reach lower 80s inland while onshore flow keeps immediate coastal areas in 50s to around 60. We also need to watch a backdoor front lurking close to northeast MA which could bring cooler temperatures there as well, perhaps into the 40s or lower 50s, but right now it seems like that front should stay to the north until sometime Wed night or Thu.
One thing we are monitoring is the potential for severe storms during afternoon and evening both Tue and Wed, mainly from 2 PM to 10 PM. Trough axis near eastern Great Lakes should provide sufficient lift to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms to our west both days, and some of this activity could survive the trip into interior southern New England given warm airmass in place and more importantly strong westerly flow aloft.
Tue actually looks to be the more interesting day with greatest potential for severe storms roughly along and west of I-91. Guidance shows decent instability (1000-1500 J/kg) Tue afternoon along with rather impressive mid level lapse rates (6-7°C (19°F)/km) that we don't see too often here and sufficient 0-6km shear of 35-40kt. This may be enough to bring storms into southern New England during the afternoon and evening with localized wind damage and hail being the main threats. Note both 3km NAM and RRFS are fairly aggressive in depicting a small line of storms moving SE across interior Tue afternoon, though HREF updraft helicities are focused more in western New England and lightning probabilities are in that area as well. However, CSU machine learning guidance does highlight much of interior southern New England with a low severe potential.
Environment still looks favorable for thunderstorms on Wed though several of the high-res models don't show much in way of activity. CSU and SPC HREF expand the low severe risk into more of southern New England, with guidance showing decent instability across more of southern New England (focused north and west of I-95 in CT, RI, and MA) with continued strong 0-6km shear (40-50kt) and better low level moisture (dewpoints into lower 60s). Mid level lapse rates are more marginal however (5-6°C (21°F)/km) but that could be overcome with sufficient instability. While overall severe threat remains low (and higher to west of New England) we can't rule out a few storms capable of producing localized wind damage or hail.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Backdoor front may bring cooler temperatures Thu- Sat, especially in eastern MA, but uncertainty is high in exactly where is ends up.
Forecast becomes more uncertain later this week as we deal with another backdoor front potentially dropping south across New England. Details will need to be worked out regarding how far south and exactly how quickly the front will be able to push southward. Typically these fronts end up somewhere from central MA into RI, with summerlike temperatures continuing to its south (Hartford) and much cooler temperatures to the north and east. For now we are basing forecast on a model blend which helps iron out some of the uncertainty, but getting more into time window for higher resolution models will help refine forecast in coming days. Certainly potential for big temperature busts this far out in time.
KEY MESSAGE 3... More seasonable temperatures early next week.
A stronger cold front is expected to cross region sometime Sun, accompanied by some showers. Much cooler airmass follows behind front early next week with temperatures returning to more typical levels for mid April, generally in 50s to around 60.
Upcoming record highs:
Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023
Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941
Tue 4/14 Boston 83 in 2023 Hartford 96 in 2023 Providence 87 in 2023 Worcester 90 in 2023
Wed 4/15 Boston 82 in 1896 Hartford 88 in 1941 Providence 82 in 1938 Worcester 85 in 1941
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256.
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