48
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Light Rain
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 13 mph
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Gale watches issued for our southern waters on Sunday.
1 Key Message 1
Another backdoor front brings a return to colder air later Saturday. More showers arrive Saturday night.
2 Key Message 2
A period of widespread showers on Sun with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
3 Key Message 3
Mainly dry and chilly Mon-Wed except for a brief period or two of rain/snow showers sometime later Mon into Tue. Odds of any road/travel impacts are low at this time.
4 Key Message 4
Milder temps return Thu into Fri with highs likely rebounding well into the 50s if not 60s with mainly dry weather.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Another backdoor front brings a return to colder air later Saturday. More showers arrive Saturday night.
A low pressure moving across southeast Canada will maintain a gusty southwest wind across southern New England for most of tonight. This will mean warmer conditions, with expected low temperatures just slightly lower than our normal high temperatures for early April. Still plenty of clouds lingering across our region, but we should be able to eliminate the drizzle away from the immediate coastal plains of RI and southeast MA.
Thinking southern New England should have a brief window of clearer skies Saturday morning as a cold front briefly moves south of our region. This front returns back north as a warm front late Saturday night, but most likely does not arrive until later Sunday. The main impacts will be increasing clouds Saturday afternoon into the overnight. Thinking the NationalBlend guidance was a little too aggressive in returning rainfall chances as quickly as it did. Tempered that timing with more of a model consensus. Still a chance of showers Saturday night, but mainly after midnight.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A period of widespread showers on Sun with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Low pressure will be lifting well to our north across Quebec on Sunday. A trailing cold front extending south from the low will approach from the west. Ahead of this cold front, a modest southwest LLJ/PWAT plume about 2 standard deviations above normal will work into the region. This should help to mix out the lingering shallow cool inversion in most locations by afternoon. Clouds will limit the high temp potential, but highs should still recover into the upper 50s and lower 60s in many locations. The LLJ/Pwat plume will also result in but enough forcing for a period of widespread showers and a few downpours on Sun. The system is fairly progressive, so the main shield of showers will probably only last 2-4/3-5 hours in a given location. Instability is rather marginal, so would not expect more than perhaps a rumble or two of thunder if even that.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Mainly dry & chilly Mon-Wed except for a brief period or two of rain/snow showers sometime later Mon into Tue. Odds of any road/travel impacts are low at this time.
The ensembles continue to show very good agreement in an upper trough setting up across the northeast. This will result in cool temperatures with mainly dry weather. However, a couple of strong but moisture starved shortwaves may bring a brief period or two of rain/snow showers sometime later Mon into Tue. In fact, the guidance indicates that the 500T mb temps will drop to between -30°C (-22°F) and -35°C (-31°F)! This will certainly increase the risk for those brief instability rain/snow showers and perhaps a bit of graupel too. That being said, odds of any road/travel impacts are relatively low at this point. Otherwise, dry weather with high temps mainly in the middle 40s to the lower 50s. It will be at night with lows mainly in the 20s to the lower 30s!
KEY MESSAGE 4... Milder temps return Thu into Fri with highs likely rebounding well into the 50s if not 60s with mainly dry weather.
Large high pressure shifts east of the region by the end of the work week. The result will be a milder southwest flow of air back into southern New England. High temps should recover well into the 50s if not 60s by Thu and Fri. Thinking mainly dry weather at this point given the lack of synoptic scale forcing.
A low pressure moving across southeast Canada will maintain a gusty southwest wind across southern New England for most of tonight. This will mean warmer conditions, with expected low temperatures just slightly lower than our normal high temperatures for early April. Still plenty of clouds lingering across our region, but we should be able to eliminate the drizzle away from the immediate coastal plains of RI and southeast MA.
Thinking southern New England should have a brief window of clearer skies Saturday morning as a cold front briefly moves south of our region. This front returns back north as a warm front late Saturday night, but most likely does not arrive until later Sunday. The main impacts will be increasing clouds Saturday afternoon into the overnight. Thinking the NationalBlend guidance was a little too aggressive in returning rainfall chances as quickly as it did. Tempered that timing with more of a model consensus. Still a chance of showers Saturday night, but mainly after midnight.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A period of widespread showers on Sun with highs mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Low pressure will be lifting well to our north across Quebec on Sunday. A trailing cold front extending south from the low will approach from the west. Ahead of this cold front, a modest southwest LLJ/PWAT plume about 2 standard deviations above normal will work into the region. This should help to mix out the lingering shallow cool inversion in most locations by afternoon. Clouds will limit the high temp potential, but highs should still recover into the upper 50s and lower 60s in many locations. The LLJ/Pwat plume will also result in but enough forcing for a period of widespread showers and a few downpours on Sun. The system is fairly progressive, so the main shield of showers will probably only last 2-4/3-5 hours in a given location. Instability is rather marginal, so would not expect more than perhaps a rumble or two of thunder if even that.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Mainly dry & chilly Mon-Wed except for a brief period or two of rain/snow showers sometime later Mon into Tue. Odds of any road/travel impacts are low at this time.
The ensembles continue to show very good agreement in an upper trough setting up across the northeast. This will result in cool temperatures with mainly dry weather. However, a couple of strong but moisture starved shortwaves may bring a brief period or two of rain/snow showers sometime later Mon into Tue. In fact, the guidance indicates that the 500T mb temps will drop to between -30°C (-22°F) and -35°C (-31°F)! This will certainly increase the risk for those brief instability rain/snow showers and perhaps a bit of graupel too. That being said, odds of any road/travel impacts are relatively low at this point. Otherwise, dry weather with high temps mainly in the middle 40s to the lower 50s. It will be at night with lows mainly in the 20s to the lower 30s!
KEY MESSAGE 4... Milder temps return Thu into Fri with highs likely rebounding well into the 50s if not 60s with mainly dry weather.
Large high pressure shifts east of the region by the end of the work week. The result will be a milder southwest flow of air back into southern New England. High temps should recover well into the 50s if not 60s by Thu and Fri. Thinking mainly dry weather at this point given the lack of synoptic scale forcing.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>235-237. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254>256.
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