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Fog/Mist
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 6 mph
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No major changes since Wednesday morning update.
1 Key Message 1
Mild temperatures Thursday will be followed by a soaking rain Thursday night into Friday with cooler temperatures to follow
2 Key Message 2
Colder and blustery conditions to start the weekend with gradual improvement starting late Sunday or early Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Mild temperatures Thursday will be followed by a soaking rain Thursday night into Friday, with cooler temperatures returning for the weekend.
A few showers are possible tonight into early Thursday morning, but otherwise a quiet period is expected. A surface low pressure system tracking east across Ontario and Quebec will lead to increasing south to southwest winds during the day Thursday. An impressive 4060 kt low-level jet at 925 hPa will support strong warm air advection, allowing 925 hPa temperatures to rise to around 10°C (50°F). With sufficient diurnal mixing, especially across the interior, surface temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s. A few locations in the Connecticut River Valley could even approach 70F. The South Coast, Cape, and Islands will be cooler, generally in the mid to upper 50s, due to persistent onshore flow.
Thursday night, a cold front associated with the low to our north will move through southern New England, bringing a period of soaking rain. While not a washout, most locations are expected to receive around 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rainfall. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, ushering in cooler air as 925 hPa temperatures fall to around 0°C (32°F) by mid-morning Friday. This will set the stage for cooler conditions heading into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder and blustery conditions to start the weekend with gradual improvement starting late Sunday or early Monday.
Once the cold front moves offshore on Friday, a drier airmass will push into southern New England. Winds will pick up as the boundary layer becomes well mixed throughout the day, with 20-30mph winds possible. As this drier airmass moves through, it will also bring dropping 850mb temps with the latest round of ensemble and deterministic guidance indicating temps dropping down to around -15°C (5°F) roughly a -15°C (5°F) to -17°C (1°F) temperature anomaly. Given the arrival time of this airmass, Friday's high temps will likely occur early in the morning before falling throughout the day. Highs struggle into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and Sunday with deep NW flow and prolonged 850mb temps <-10°C (14°F). Southern New England will see gradual improvements starting Monday as high pressure moves offshore.
Starting to keep an eye on another cold front possibly dropping into southern New England from the north late Monday or early Tuesday. This could bring another round of cooler temperatures and rain depending on how far south the front drops. Still quite early to know any further details.&&
A few showers are possible tonight into early Thursday morning, but otherwise a quiet period is expected. A surface low pressure system tracking east across Ontario and Quebec will lead to increasing south to southwest winds during the day Thursday. An impressive 4060 kt low-level jet at 925 hPa will support strong warm air advection, allowing 925 hPa temperatures to rise to around 10°C (50°F). With sufficient diurnal mixing, especially across the interior, surface temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s. A few locations in the Connecticut River Valley could even approach 70F. The South Coast, Cape, and Islands will be cooler, generally in the mid to upper 50s, due to persistent onshore flow.
Thursday night, a cold front associated with the low to our north will move through southern New England, bringing a period of soaking rain. While not a washout, most locations are expected to receive around 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rainfall. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, ushering in cooler air as 925 hPa temperatures fall to around 0°C (32°F) by mid-morning Friday. This will set the stage for cooler conditions heading into the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder and blustery conditions to start the weekend with gradual improvement starting late Sunday or early Monday.
Once the cold front moves offshore on Friday, a drier airmass will push into southern New England. Winds will pick up as the boundary layer becomes well mixed throughout the day, with 20-30mph winds possible. As this drier airmass moves through, it will also bring dropping 850mb temps with the latest round of ensemble and deterministic guidance indicating temps dropping down to around -15°C (5°F) roughly a -15°C (5°F) to -17°C (1°F) temperature anomaly. Given the arrival time of this airmass, Friday's high temps will likely occur early in the morning before falling throughout the day. Highs struggle into the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday and Sunday with deep NW flow and prolonged 850mb temps <-10°C (14°F). Southern New England will see gradual improvements starting Monday as high pressure moves offshore.
Starting to keep an eye on another cold front possibly dropping into southern New England from the north late Monday or early Tuesday. This could bring another round of cooler temperatures and rain depending on how far south the front drops. Still quite early to know any further details.&&
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231>234-251. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.
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