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Fog/Mist
Humidity: 100%
Wind: 0 mph
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No significant changes to prior forecasts.
1 Key Message 1
Scattered snow showers across portions of southern New England late today through midnight.
2 Key Message 2
Milder Wed, then spring-like Thu, followed by showers accompanying a cold front Thu night into early Fri.
3 Key Message 3
Behind the front, dry, but blustery and colder later Friday into Saturday
KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered snow showers across portions of southern New England late today through midnight.
Fairly impressive shortwave aloft, that is also associated with a pocket of cold air (500mb temperatures colder than -30°C (-22°F)) will rotate across the region this evening into early overnight. Although it's coming through overnight, the cold air aloft will be enough to generate enough instability for scattered snow showers to develop, with activity waning after midnight. Just like summer time convection, not everyone will see these snow showers. Snow Squall Parameter is not overly impressive (values just above 1), but suggests the better chances for any briefly heavier snow showers will be across the western half of the area. Points further east may just see flurries. Accumulations will be light (generally less than 1/2") and be confined to those localized areas that see the brief heavier bursts. No impacts to roads are anticipated.
On a side note, ahead of the main trough, a ribbon of vorticity aloft will result in a general area of light snow & rain that will traverse the region through 6pm, but also not have any real impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Milder Wed, then spring-like Thu, followed by showers accompanying a cold front Thu night into early Fri.
Active upper air pattern will bringing a series of shortwave troughs through the region. The first short wave will move across the region Wed night. This first wave will have limited moisture and jet dynamics. Therefore, shower activity should be more scattered in coverage. Hence, not everyone will have measurable rainfall. WAA ahead of the short wave will result in milder temps Wed, with highs around 50, cooler near the south coast, in response to gusty SW winds. Morning sunshine likely gives way to afternoon clouds, in response to WAA pattern.
Then spring-like warmth Thursday ahead of the next short wave. Highs should rise to around 60 away from the south coast, given another day of SW winds. This second wave moves through Thursday night into early Friday and has more moisture and forcing for ascent. Therefore expecting showers Thu night into early Fri to be more widespread.
As previous forecaster noted, each shortwave (Wed ngt & again Thu ngt) will be accompanied by a robust low level SW jet. But given the timing, a nocturnal inversion will preclude these stronger winds aloft from mixing to the surface.
KEY MESSAGE 3... behind the front, dry, but blustery and colder later Friday into Saturday.
FROPA occurs sometime early Friday, followed by drier but blustery and colder conditions. Some of the model guidance (GFS & UKMET) advects -12°C (10°F) air at 925 mb temps across SNE 12z Sat! Not very spring- like, then again, March in New England. Lows in the teens and 20s, highs only 35-40 Saturday.
Fairly impressive shortwave aloft, that is also associated with a pocket of cold air (500mb temperatures colder than -30°C (-22°F)) will rotate across the region this evening into early overnight. Although it's coming through overnight, the cold air aloft will be enough to generate enough instability for scattered snow showers to develop, with activity waning after midnight. Just like summer time convection, not everyone will see these snow showers. Snow Squall Parameter is not overly impressive (values just above 1), but suggests the better chances for any briefly heavier snow showers will be across the western half of the area. Points further east may just see flurries. Accumulations will be light (generally less than 1/2") and be confined to those localized areas that see the brief heavier bursts. No impacts to roads are anticipated.
On a side note, ahead of the main trough, a ribbon of vorticity aloft will result in a general area of light snow & rain that will traverse the region through 6pm, but also not have any real impacts.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Milder Wed, then spring-like Thu, followed by showers accompanying a cold front Thu night into early Fri.
Active upper air pattern will bringing a series of shortwave troughs through the region. The first short wave will move across the region Wed night. This first wave will have limited moisture and jet dynamics. Therefore, shower activity should be more scattered in coverage. Hence, not everyone will have measurable rainfall. WAA ahead of the short wave will result in milder temps Wed, with highs around 50, cooler near the south coast, in response to gusty SW winds. Morning sunshine likely gives way to afternoon clouds, in response to WAA pattern.
Then spring-like warmth Thursday ahead of the next short wave. Highs should rise to around 60 away from the south coast, given another day of SW winds. This second wave moves through Thursday night into early Friday and has more moisture and forcing for ascent. Therefore expecting showers Thu night into early Fri to be more widespread.
As previous forecaster noted, each shortwave (Wed ngt & again Thu ngt) will be accompanied by a robust low level SW jet. But given the timing, a nocturnal inversion will preclude these stronger winds aloft from mixing to the surface.
KEY MESSAGE 3... behind the front, dry, but blustery and colder later Friday into Saturday.
FROPA occurs sometime early Friday, followed by drier but blustery and colder conditions. Some of the model guidance (GFS & UKMET) advects -12°C (10°F) air at 925 mb temps across SNE 12z Sat! Not very spring- like, then again, March in New England. Lows in the teens and 20s, highs only 35-40 Saturday.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251-254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-251-254>256.
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