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Fog/Mist
Humidity: 93%
Wind: 9 mph
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The risk for a band of accumulating snow has diminished Monday morning. However...we are watching for the potential for snow showers and perhaps a few snow squalls late Monday into Monday night across eastern New England and especially eastern Massachusetts.
1 Key Message 1
Periods of mainly rain Sun-Sun night...but a brief period of snow at the onset very early Sun am mainly north of I-90. A coating to 1" of snow possible in the northwest Berks & northern ORH Hills.
2 Key Message 2
A few lingering rain/snow showers possible Mon morning along the coastal plain...but thinking dry air likely wins out and the threat for accumulating snow has diminished Mon morning. However...we are watching for a round of snow showers/snow squall or two late Mon/Mon night central MA/RI and especially eastern MA. Minor snow accumulations are not out of the question.
3 Key Message 3
Temperatures remain below average for the first half of the week then moderate by mid-week. Expecting an active upcoming period, with several rounds of quick hitting showers possible throughout the week.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Periods of mainly rain Sun-Sun night...but a brief period of snow at the onset very early Sun am mainly north of I-90. A coating to 1" of snow possible in the northwest Berks & northern ORH Hills.
A weak ridge of high pressure will result in dry weather this evening. A mid level shortwave/warm front will approach from the southwest after midnight into mid-morning Sunday. This should allow areas of precipitation to develop...mainly across western and northern MA initially. It is probably initially cold enough for a brief period of wet snow at the onset across the highest terrain of northern MA and possibly areas north of I-90. Any accumulations probably a coating to 1" of snow mainly in the highest terrain of the northwest Berks and northern Worcester Hills. Ptype should flip to all rain by mid to late Sun morning in all areas as warmer mid level air overspreads the region.
Otherwise...a wave of low pressure across the mid-Atlantic will slowly move east. This will allow an area of steady rain to sink south from northern MA and eventually into CT/RI/SE MA Sun afternoon into Sun night. This is an ana-frontal setup...so we do expect a narrow band of rather strong mid level frontogenesis. These are often tough to locate because they tend to impact a narrow area. Currently this looks to be towards the south coast...where 0.75 to perhaps up to 1.50 inches of rain would be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A few lingering rain/snow showers possible Mon morning along the coastal plain...but thinking dry air likely wins out and the threat for accumulating snow has diminished Mon morning. However...we are watching for a round of snow showers/snow squall or two late Mon/Mon night central MA/RI and especially eastern MA. Minor snow accumulations are not out of the question.
A few lingering rain/snow showers possible Mon morning on the coastal plain...but for the most part it looks like the dry air will have won out. So feel that the accumulating snow potential has diminished Mon morning. We may have a few snow flakes in the air...but right now thinking the threat of any impacts is rather low.
However...we are watching a rather potent shortwave/cold pool aloft that will be dropping into our region later Mon into Mon night. This combined with plenty of left over low level moisture and instability...should allow an area of snow showers/snow squall or two to develop late Mon into Mon night across central MA/RI and particularly eastern MA. In fact...the guidance indicates an inverted trough feature may setup across eastern MA Mon night. Therefore...will need to watch for the potential of some minor snow accumulations Mon night in this region given temps falling below freezing.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures remain below average for the first half of the week then moderate by mid-week. Expecting an active upcoming period, with several rounds of quick hitting showers possible throughout the week.
High pressure builds in over southern New England Tuesday morning, allowing for a short period of clearing skies and drier conditions. High temperatures Tuesday will be just below normal for early spring. Ensembles continue to indicate a more active upper-air pattern with multiple shortwaves moving through as we head into the second half of next week. The AI ensembles are trending slightly more amplified than the regular ensembles which could lead to enhanced precipitation totals, but not expecting large amounts either way. Daytime temperatures are expected to reach into the low 50s with nighttime lows below freezing. If some of these showers pass through overnight, it's possible some areas like the higher elevations could see a few snow flurries.
A weak ridge of high pressure will result in dry weather this evening. A mid level shortwave/warm front will approach from the southwest after midnight into mid-morning Sunday. This should allow areas of precipitation to develop...mainly across western and northern MA initially. It is probably initially cold enough for a brief period of wet snow at the onset across the highest terrain of northern MA and possibly areas north of I-90. Any accumulations probably a coating to 1" of snow mainly in the highest terrain of the northwest Berks and northern Worcester Hills. Ptype should flip to all rain by mid to late Sun morning in all areas as warmer mid level air overspreads the region.
Otherwise...a wave of low pressure across the mid-Atlantic will slowly move east. This will allow an area of steady rain to sink south from northern MA and eventually into CT/RI/SE MA Sun afternoon into Sun night. This is an ana-frontal setup...so we do expect a narrow band of rather strong mid level frontogenesis. These are often tough to locate because they tend to impact a narrow area. Currently this looks to be towards the south coast...where 0.75 to perhaps up to 1.50 inches of rain would be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A few lingering rain/snow showers possible Mon morning along the coastal plain...but thinking dry air likely wins out and the threat for accumulating snow has diminished Mon morning. However...we are watching for a round of snow showers/snow squall or two late Mon/Mon night central MA/RI and especially eastern MA. Minor snow accumulations are not out of the question.
A few lingering rain/snow showers possible Mon morning on the coastal plain...but for the most part it looks like the dry air will have won out. So feel that the accumulating snow potential has diminished Mon morning. We may have a few snow flakes in the air...but right now thinking the threat of any impacts is rather low.
However...we are watching a rather potent shortwave/cold pool aloft that will be dropping into our region later Mon into Mon night. This combined with plenty of left over low level moisture and instability...should allow an area of snow showers/snow squall or two to develop late Mon into Mon night across central MA/RI and particularly eastern MA. In fact...the guidance indicates an inverted trough feature may setup across eastern MA Mon night. Therefore...will need to watch for the potential of some minor snow accumulations Mon night in this region given temps falling below freezing.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Temperatures remain below average for the first half of the week then moderate by mid-week. Expecting an active upcoming period, with several rounds of quick hitting showers possible throughout the week.
High pressure builds in over southern New England Tuesday morning, allowing for a short period of clearing skies and drier conditions. High temperatures Tuesday will be just below normal for early spring. Ensembles continue to indicate a more active upper-air pattern with multiple shortwaves moving through as we head into the second half of next week. The AI ensembles are trending slightly more amplified than the regular ensembles which could lead to enhanced precipitation totals, but not expecting large amounts either way. Daytime temperatures are expected to reach into the low 50s with nighttime lows below freezing. If some of these showers pass through overnight, it's possible some areas like the higher elevations could see a few snow flurries.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-254>256.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-254>256.
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