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Mostly Clear
Humidity: 94%
Wind: 10 mph
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Wind Advisory posted for the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and East Slopes of the Berkshires. Gale Warnings for the southern coastal waters of MA and RI.
1 Key Message 1
Strong westerly wind gusts of 35-50 mph Saturday.
2 Key Message 2
A period of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and unseasonably mild temps Mon into Mon night. Some river and small stream flooding expected.
3 Key Message 3
Trending colder with mainly dry weather Tue through Thu.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong westerly wind gusts of 35-50 mph Saturday.
After a brief period of light rain and snow showers late this evening into the early morning hours, attention turns to the more significant impact of gusty winds. Little to no snow accumulation expected, except perhaps across the highest elevations towards NW MA, where 1-2 inches is possible.
Increasing south to southwest winds late tonight into Saturday. Based on model sounding, thinking much of southern New England will have wind gusts of 30-40 mph. Some locations across the higher terrain, namely the Worcester Hills and the east slopes of the Berkshires, are expected more in the 45-50 mph range. This was more in line with the NBM 90th percentile gusts, which were used for this forecast. Stronger wind gusts are possible, but would require near perfect mixing and momentum transfer. Posted a Wind Advisory for the higher terrain areas, but it is marginal.
Otherwise, dry weather expected for Saturday as winds become west by mid morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A period of heavy rainfall, strong winds and unseasonably mild temps Mon into Mon night. Some river and small stream flooding expected.
Monday and Monday night are looking like the most impactful weather period of the forecast bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. This, as a deep mid level trough digs into the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday dragging a surface frontal system through Southern New England Monday into Monday night. A warm front lifts north during the day on Monday as a deep plume of moisture begins to move overhead. This will lead to widespread warm advection showers as well as temperatures 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Sunday, in the upper 50s and low 60s. This is an anomolous system both in the magnitude of moisture and wind/dynamics. Dewpoints surge into the mid to upper 50s in the warm sector on Monday while PWATs reach nearly 1.5 inches which is outside of the climatology for mid March. There's a very strong LLJ present as well, 60-70kt at 925 mb. Additionally, given the anomalous warmth and and moisture in the warm sector, we can't rule out some convective elements with elevated instability, even potential for a fine line along the cold front. This could serve to contribute to localized downpours and to help bring those strong winds to the surface. Added together, there is a signal for a potentially significant event if things come together. An addition of 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally even higher) together with the rapid snow melt will lead to flooding concerns on local rivers and streams. MMEFS ensemble guidance continues to highlight a 60-80% chance of minor flooding and 20-30% chance for moderate flooding. The greatest risk looks to be the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck, and wood Rivers in RI with lesser concerns on the Assabet River, Deerfield River, and the lower reaches of the CT River.
The southerly wind trajectory will make it difficult to mix down the LLJ, limiting wind damage potential much of the time thanks to a decent inversion. If there was a window for the best chance of some of these strong winds mixing down it would be overnight Monday as the cold front passes through. Precip comes to an end by sunrise, potentially as late as mid morning for far eastern MA.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Trending colder with mainly dry weather Tue through Thu.
Cooler and drier weather Tuesday behind a front. Cyclonic flow remains overhead, but things remain dry through at least Thursday. The peak of the cold airmass overhead is Wednesday, so that will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the 30s to near 40. 40s return late week.
After a brief period of light rain and snow showers late this evening into the early morning hours, attention turns to the more significant impact of gusty winds. Little to no snow accumulation expected, except perhaps across the highest elevations towards NW MA, where 1-2 inches is possible.
Increasing south to southwest winds late tonight into Saturday. Based on model sounding, thinking much of southern New England will have wind gusts of 30-40 mph. Some locations across the higher terrain, namely the Worcester Hills and the east slopes of the Berkshires, are expected more in the 45-50 mph range. This was more in line with the NBM 90th percentile gusts, which were used for this forecast. Stronger wind gusts are possible, but would require near perfect mixing and momentum transfer. Posted a Wind Advisory for the higher terrain areas, but it is marginal.
Otherwise, dry weather expected for Saturday as winds become west by mid morning.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A period of heavy rainfall, strong winds and unseasonably mild temps Mon into Mon night. Some river and small stream flooding expected.
Monday and Monday night are looking like the most impactful weather period of the forecast bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. This, as a deep mid level trough digs into the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday dragging a surface frontal system through Southern New England Monday into Monday night. A warm front lifts north during the day on Monday as a deep plume of moisture begins to move overhead. This will lead to widespread warm advection showers as well as temperatures 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Sunday, in the upper 50s and low 60s. This is an anomolous system both in the magnitude of moisture and wind/dynamics. Dewpoints surge into the mid to upper 50s in the warm sector on Monday while PWATs reach nearly 1.5 inches which is outside of the climatology for mid March. There's a very strong LLJ present as well, 60-70kt at 925 mb. Additionally, given the anomalous warmth and and moisture in the warm sector, we can't rule out some convective elements with elevated instability, even potential for a fine line along the cold front. This could serve to contribute to localized downpours and to help bring those strong winds to the surface. Added together, there is a signal for a potentially significant event if things come together. An addition of 1 to 2 inches of rain (locally even higher) together with the rapid snow melt will lead to flooding concerns on local rivers and streams. MMEFS ensemble guidance continues to highlight a 60-80% chance of minor flooding and 20-30% chance for moderate flooding. The greatest risk looks to be the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck, and wood Rivers in RI with lesser concerns on the Assabet River, Deerfield River, and the lower reaches of the CT River.
The southerly wind trajectory will make it difficult to mix down the LLJ, limiting wind damage potential much of the time thanks to a decent inversion. If there was a window for the best chance of some of these strong winds mixing down it would be overnight Monday as the cold front passes through. Precip comes to an end by sunrise, potentially as late as mid morning for far eastern MA.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Trending colder with mainly dry weather Tue through Thu.
Cooler and drier weather Tuesday behind a front. Cyclonic flow remains overhead, but things remain dry through at least Thursday. The peak of the cold airmass overhead is Wednesday, so that will be the coolest day of the week with highs in the 30s to near 40. 40s return late week.
CT: None
MA: Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ002-004-008-009.
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ236. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ251. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256.
MA: Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for MAZ002-004-008-009.
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ231. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ236. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ251. Gale Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ254. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256.
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