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No significant changes. Becoming more confident that any minor river flooding will not occur until Monday.
1 Key Message 1
Record warmth gives way to cooler weather by end of the week with rain/snow showers possible late Friday or Friday night.
2 Key Message 2
Potential for strong winds and heavy rain later Sunday and Monday which may lead to minor river flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Record warmth gives way to cooler weather by end of the week with rain/snow showers possible late Friday or Friday night.
Watching the climate sites for record highs this afternoon:
- Worcester (ORH) reached 69 and broke the record of 67 in 2020.
- Hartford (BDL) reached 71 and is close to the record of 72 in 2016.
- Boston (BOS) has struggled due to a sea breeze but we should see winds shift to SW this afternoon which will boost the temperature quickly. That should challenge one of the few long standing records that dates back to 1878 (71 degrees).
- Providence (PVD) has a sea breeze but may see a temperature jump later as well. Record high is 72 in 2016.
All good things must come to an end and that includes our taste of unseasonably warm weather, although temperatures should still average above normal Wednesday and Thursday. We're watching a backdoor cold front that will drop south through New England early Wednesday and exactly where it ends up will be the difference between cooler, damp weather and cloudy but somewhat milder conditions.
Latest high-res guidance brings front through central/eastern MA and northern RI where temperatures should drop into upper 30s and lower 40s along with drizzle and patchy fog from onshore flow, while to the south across much of CT, it should be cloudy but somewhat milder with temperatures in the 40s to around 50.
This front should advance back northward late in day Wednesday and Wednesday night, so in the cool sector temperatures should rise during night. Upper trough moving through eastern Great Lakes will bring a stronger cold front through region early Thursday morning, bringing with it a few showers and the arrival of colder air in its wake. A weak and fast moving low is expected to cross New England later Friday into early Saturday, accompanied by rain or snow showers, with any snow more favored in western/central MA, but with minimal accumulation.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential for strong winds and heavy rain later Sunday and Monday which may lead to minor river flooding.
Even though melting snow has brought increased river and stream flows, we don't see much of a flood concern until Monday with the arrival of potentially heavy rainfall and strong winds. Rises on mainstem Connecticut River this weekend should remain below flood stage.
Ensemble situational awareness tables indicate the potential for a highly anomalous event in terms of rainfall and strong winds, with several wind and moisture parameters above the 90th percentile and in some cases near the max of model climate. This is ahead of a more amplified upper trough which will bring strong southerly flow and deep moisture into southern New England resulting in a widespread and potentially heavy rainfall event along with a brief surge of warmth.
Probabilities for 1"+ of rain are currently centered more across CT, RI, and SE MA, and as a result ensemble river forecasts show the potential for minor flooding beginning Monday along the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck, and Wood Rivers in RI and perhaps along the lower reaches of the mainstem Connecticut River from Hartford through Middle Haddam.
It's tough to mix down strong winds this time of year with southerly flow events, but areas that are usually favored are the immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Assuming we have a strong inversion, which is typical in March, we can estimate gusts taking about 50% of 925 mb winds. GFS shows a peak of 70-75kt Mon morning which would yield 35-40kt gusts and Gales on the coastal waters.
Behind a strong cold front, we look to be in for another brief surge of cold with below average temperatures in the 30s Tuesday.
Watching the climate sites for record highs this afternoon:
- Worcester (ORH) reached 69 and broke the record of 67 in 2020.
- Hartford (BDL) reached 71 and is close to the record of 72 in 2016.
- Boston (BOS) has struggled due to a sea breeze but we should see winds shift to SW this afternoon which will boost the temperature quickly. That should challenge one of the few long standing records that dates back to 1878 (71 degrees).
- Providence (PVD) has a sea breeze but may see a temperature jump later as well. Record high is 72 in 2016.
All good things must come to an end and that includes our taste of unseasonably warm weather, although temperatures should still average above normal Wednesday and Thursday. We're watching a backdoor cold front that will drop south through New England early Wednesday and exactly where it ends up will be the difference between cooler, damp weather and cloudy but somewhat milder conditions.
Latest high-res guidance brings front through central/eastern MA and northern RI where temperatures should drop into upper 30s and lower 40s along with drizzle and patchy fog from onshore flow, while to the south across much of CT, it should be cloudy but somewhat milder with temperatures in the 40s to around 50.
This front should advance back northward late in day Wednesday and Wednesday night, so in the cool sector temperatures should rise during night. Upper trough moving through eastern Great Lakes will bring a stronger cold front through region early Thursday morning, bringing with it a few showers and the arrival of colder air in its wake. A weak and fast moving low is expected to cross New England later Friday into early Saturday, accompanied by rain or snow showers, with any snow more favored in western/central MA, but with minimal accumulation.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential for strong winds and heavy rain later Sunday and Monday which may lead to minor river flooding.
Even though melting snow has brought increased river and stream flows, we don't see much of a flood concern until Monday with the arrival of potentially heavy rainfall and strong winds. Rises on mainstem Connecticut River this weekend should remain below flood stage.
Ensemble situational awareness tables indicate the potential for a highly anomalous event in terms of rainfall and strong winds, with several wind and moisture parameters above the 90th percentile and in some cases near the max of model climate. This is ahead of a more amplified upper trough which will bring strong southerly flow and deep moisture into southern New England resulting in a widespread and potentially heavy rainfall event along with a brief surge of warmth.
Probabilities for 1"+ of rain are currently centered more across CT, RI, and SE MA, and as a result ensemble river forecasts show the potential for minor flooding beginning Monday along the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck, and Wood Rivers in RI and perhaps along the lower reaches of the mainstem Connecticut River from Hartford through Middle Haddam.
It's tough to mix down strong winds this time of year with southerly flow events, but areas that are usually favored are the immediate South Coast, Cape Cod, and the Islands. Assuming we have a strong inversion, which is typical in March, we can estimate gusts taking about 50% of 925 mb winds. GFS shows a peak of 70-75kt Mon morning which would yield 35-40kt gusts and Gales on the coastal waters.
Behind a strong cold front, we look to be in for another brief surge of cold with below average temperatures in the 30s Tuesday.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: None
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