46
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Cloudy
Humidity: 76%
Wind: 10 mph
Local Alerts: (Western Plymouth, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth)
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No significant changes.
1 Key Message 1
The historical blizzard impacting RI and eastern MA will gradually wind down through the afternoon and early evening. Strongest gusts along SE New Eng coast will slowly diminish late afternoon and evening.
2 Key Message 2
Another round of minor coastal flooding along the eastern MA coast during the late afternoon high tide, with pockets of low end moderate flooding along Nantucket Harbor and Cape Cod Bay from Sandwich to Dennis.
3 Key Message 3
Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled ed weather by Friday.
KEY MESSAGE 1... The historical blizzard impacting RI and eastern MA will gradually wind down through the afternoon and early evening. Strongest gusts along SE New Eng coast will slowly diminish late afternoon and evening.
625 PM update...
While the heavy snow has tapered off across RI and eastern MA, the deformation band is actually regenerating a bit across eastern MA so periods of light to moderate snow continue. Drier air is moving in from the west where dewpoints have fallen through the teens. This air will be moving into eastern New England which will result in the band weakening with snow ending between 7 and 10 pm across eastern MA. An additional inch or 2 is possible.
Previous discussion...
The persistent mesoscale snow band hammering RI and SE MA is weakening as low pres has moved east of the benchmark and heading offshore. This trend will continue through the afternoon with snowfall rates gradually diminishing as the low pulls away. May still have an hour or 2 of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates before the snow lightens up and eventually ends early this evening. Max snowfall from this storm will be 2-3 feet confined to RI and SE MA.
Peak of the wind is occurring now across SE coastal MA and Cape/Islands within the core of the low level jet. Wind gusts to 60- 80 mph here will gradually diminish mid to late afternoon with 50-60 mph gusts lingering into the early evening before diminishing further through the night as the LLJ weakens and moves offshore.
Otherwise, drying out tonight with partial clearing overnight across SNE with lows dropping into the teens, with lower 20s along the immediate coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Another round of minor coastal flooding along the eastern MA coast during the late afternoon high tide, with pockets of low end moderate flooding along Nantucket Harbor and Cape Cod Bay from Sandwich to Dennis.
Currently observing a 4.2 ft surge at Nantucket with likely similar surge at Dennis. Expect the surge to come down a bit as we approach high tide late this afternoon but still looking at a 3-4 ft surge here. This will bring widespread minor flooding to Nantucket and Cape Cod from Sandwich to Dennis, with pockets of low end moderate possible.
For the rest of the east coast, we're looking at a 2-3 ft surge which will bring pockets of minor flooding from Plymouth northward.
Again, the most significant impacts for the late afternoon high tide will be at Nantucket and along Cape Cod Bay with widespread minor to pockets of low end moderate flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather by Friday.
After lows in the teens and single digits Tuesday night, a clipper system emerges from the Great Lakes region Wednesday. A trailing warm front ahead of it brings a chance for some more wintry precipitation with the highest probs of accumulations in the interior. Elsewhere across the coastal plain thermal profiles appear to be marginal with surface temps warming into the mid and upper 30s. NBM has the highest probability for 1 inch of snow or greater snowfall totals in the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Snow may accumulate at lower elevations if the timing of the front but expecting temperatures to quickly warm into middle and upper 30s by the afternoon.
Temperatures will have quite a significant diurnal variation Tuesday night through Wednesday with lows falling well below freezing and highs warming into the upper 30s. These warmer daytime temperatures will result in melting and refreezing of any melted snow, leading to slick conditions on untreated walkways.
Ensemble guidance is hinting at impacts from another area of low pressure Thursday night into Friday. Details on the exact track and strength are highly uncertain at this time. That being said, ensemble guidance has shown the possibility of a track north and west of our CWA which result in more of the way of mixed precipitation. Again, we are nearly 6 days away from this system so exact details will be resolved in future forecast updates.
625 PM update...
While the heavy snow has tapered off across RI and eastern MA, the deformation band is actually regenerating a bit across eastern MA so periods of light to moderate snow continue. Drier air is moving in from the west where dewpoints have fallen through the teens. This air will be moving into eastern New England which will result in the band weakening with snow ending between 7 and 10 pm across eastern MA. An additional inch or 2 is possible.
Previous discussion...
The persistent mesoscale snow band hammering RI and SE MA is weakening as low pres has moved east of the benchmark and heading offshore. This trend will continue through the afternoon with snowfall rates gradually diminishing as the low pulls away. May still have an hour or 2 of 1-2"/hr snowfall rates before the snow lightens up and eventually ends early this evening. Max snowfall from this storm will be 2-3 feet confined to RI and SE MA.
Peak of the wind is occurring now across SE coastal MA and Cape/Islands within the core of the low level jet. Wind gusts to 60- 80 mph here will gradually diminish mid to late afternoon with 50-60 mph gusts lingering into the early evening before diminishing further through the night as the LLJ weakens and moves offshore.
Otherwise, drying out tonight with partial clearing overnight across SNE with lows dropping into the teens, with lower 20s along the immediate coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Another round of minor coastal flooding along the eastern MA coast during the late afternoon high tide, with pockets of low end moderate flooding along Nantucket Harbor and Cape Cod Bay from Sandwich to Dennis.
Currently observing a 4.2 ft surge at Nantucket with likely similar surge at Dennis. Expect the surge to come down a bit as we approach high tide late this afternoon but still looking at a 3-4 ft surge here. This will bring widespread minor flooding to Nantucket and Cape Cod from Sandwich to Dennis, with pockets of low end moderate possible.
For the rest of the east coast, we're looking at a 2-3 ft surge which will bring pockets of minor flooding from Plymouth northward.
Again, the most significant impacts for the late afternoon high tide will be at Nantucket and along Cape Cod Bay with widespread minor to pockets of low end moderate flooding.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Mostly clear day Tuesday gives way to an unsettled pattern for the mid and late week timeframe. A clipper system may bring precipitation Wednesday and a warm front has the potential to bring yet another round of unsettled weather by Friday.
After lows in the teens and single digits Tuesday night, a clipper system emerges from the Great Lakes region Wednesday. A trailing warm front ahead of it brings a chance for some more wintry precipitation with the highest probs of accumulations in the interior. Elsewhere across the coastal plain thermal profiles appear to be marginal with surface temps warming into the mid and upper 30s. NBM has the highest probability for 1 inch of snow or greater snowfall totals in the Worcester Hills and Berkshires. Snow may accumulate at lower elevations if the timing of the front but expecting temperatures to quickly warm into middle and upper 30s by the afternoon.
Temperatures will have quite a significant diurnal variation Tuesday night through Wednesday with lows falling well below freezing and highs warming into the upper 30s. These warmer daytime temperatures will result in melting and refreezing of any melted snow, leading to slick conditions on untreated walkways.
Ensemble guidance is hinting at impacts from another area of low pressure Thursday night into Friday. Details on the exact track and strength are highly uncertain at this time. That being said, ensemble guidance has shown the possibility of a track north and west of our CWA which result in more of the way of mixed precipitation. Again, we are nearly 6 days away from this system so exact details will be resolved in future forecast updates.
CT: None
MA: Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ004>007-012>024-026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MAZ019-022>024.
RI: Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE: Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-233>237-256. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
MA: Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ004>007-012>024-026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for MAZ019-022>024.
RI: Blizzard Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE: Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230-233>237-256. Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255.
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