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Humidity: 66%
Wind: 9 mph
Local Alerts: (Western Plymouth, Eastern Plymouth, Southern Plymouth)
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Given increased confidence in a high-impact winter storm, a Blizzard Warning has been issued for all of RI and eastern MA, including Boston and Providence. All other Winter Storm Watches have been converted to Winter Storm Warnings, except at Nantucket, where a Winter Storm Watch continues, given the uncertainty of rain mixing with the snow at times. Greatest impacts are expected in RI and eastern MA, with highest snow totals and strongest winds.
A High Wind Warning has been posted for Nantucket Sunday night into Monday night.
A High Wind Warning has been posted for Nantucket Sunday night into Monday night.
1 Key Message 1
A powerful winter storm brings significant impacts to much of the region Sunday night into Monday, with heavy snowfall, strong winds and blizzard conditions to RI and eastern MA.
2 Key Message 2
A powerful coastal storm will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding during the late Sunday night/early Monday morning high tide across eastern MA. The greatest impacts will be from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands.
KEY MESSAGE 1... A powerful winter storm will impact SNE with heavy snow, strong winds, blizzard conditions and coastal flooding Sunday night into Monday. Here are specific details -
Timing: light snow/flurries will develop Sunday afternoon across CT/RI/MA, however the accumulating snow will begin late Sunday/Sun evening. Then the heaviest snow will occur from late Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Very strong forcing for ascent results in bomogenesis, with multiple model guidance indicating the cyclone will intensify to sub 970mb as it crosses near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday! Model cross sections and soundings have very strong lift in the DGZ along with steep lapse rates, yielding bands of very heavy snow late Sunday night into Monday. The 12z HREF has mean hourly snowfall rates of 3+ inches around 12z Monday over RI and southeast MA! Given the magnitude of the lift and instability, low prob of thundersnow. Intensity of the snow should slacken late in the day Monday and especially Monday evening.
Snow amounts: all model guidance has at least an inch of qpf across RI and southeast MA, with some of the guidance over 2 inches in this region. Thus, very high confidence in at least a foot of snow across RI and southeast MA, with potentially up to 2 feet if these higher scenarios verify. Farther west into CT and western-central MA, some uncertainty how far northwest this heavy qpf rotates. Nonetheless, high confidence for 8-15 inches for CT and western-central MA, therefore Winter Storm Watches have been converted to warnings. Depending on the exact track of the low, rain may mix in a times across Nantucket. Therefore, some uncertainty on 6+ inches here. Hence, we held with the Winter Storm Watch. This will be a heavy/wet snow especially across RI and southeast MA.
Strong to Damaging Winds: a very strong low level NE jet up to 80 kt will traverse RI and eastern MA. Model soundings from both the NAM and GFS support gusts up to 45-55 mph, but as high as 70 mph possible across Cape Cod and the Islands! These wind speeds combined with the heavy snowfall rates will create white out conditions at times, hence a blizzard warning has been issued for RI and eastern MA. If the low trends farther west, blizzard warnings may need to be expanded into the Worcester Hills. Also, the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow will yield the possibility of power outages across RI and eastern MA. For Nantucket, issued a high wind warning, as model soundings and cross sections have 70 kt of wind aloft extending downward to 500 ft!
Impacts: Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected from roughly late Sunday night/early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Travel will be nearly impossible, with snowfall rates 2-4" per hour at times during this period. Also, heavy wet snow will combine with strong winds, yielding the potential for power outages across RI and eastern MA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Coastal Flooding
A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early Monday morning (2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. Therefore a coastal flood warning has been issued for this portion of the coastline. Farther northward from Boston to the NH border, there is more uncertainty, with a higher probability of minor flooding likely. Therefore, we held with a coastal flood watch there. The greatest storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during low tide Monday (9- 10AM). However, there could be enough storm surge for minor coastal flooding during the late day high tide (3-6pm). Although, given the astro tide is lower and winds will be more northerly, only expecting minor flooding. Nonetheless, a coastal flood watch remains in effect for this second tide Monday to account for any storm track changes, including timing.
Timing: light snow/flurries will develop Sunday afternoon across CT/RI/MA, however the accumulating snow will begin late Sunday/Sun evening. Then the heaviest snow will occur from late Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Very strong forcing for ascent results in bomogenesis, with multiple model guidance indicating the cyclone will intensify to sub 970mb as it crosses near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday! Model cross sections and soundings have very strong lift in the DGZ along with steep lapse rates, yielding bands of very heavy snow late Sunday night into Monday. The 12z HREF has mean hourly snowfall rates of 3+ inches around 12z Monday over RI and southeast MA! Given the magnitude of the lift and instability, low prob of thundersnow. Intensity of the snow should slacken late in the day Monday and especially Monday evening.
Snow amounts: all model guidance has at least an inch of qpf across RI and southeast MA, with some of the guidance over 2 inches in this region. Thus, very high confidence in at least a foot of snow across RI and southeast MA, with potentially up to 2 feet if these higher scenarios verify. Farther west into CT and western-central MA, some uncertainty how far northwest this heavy qpf rotates. Nonetheless, high confidence for 8-15 inches for CT and western-central MA, therefore Winter Storm Watches have been converted to warnings. Depending on the exact track of the low, rain may mix in a times across Nantucket. Therefore, some uncertainty on 6+ inches here. Hence, we held with the Winter Storm Watch. This will be a heavy/wet snow especially across RI and southeast MA.
Strong to Damaging Winds: a very strong low level NE jet up to 80 kt will traverse RI and eastern MA. Model soundings from both the NAM and GFS support gusts up to 45-55 mph, but as high as 70 mph possible across Cape Cod and the Islands! These wind speeds combined with the heavy snowfall rates will create white out conditions at times, hence a blizzard warning has been issued for RI and eastern MA. If the low trends farther west, blizzard warnings may need to be expanded into the Worcester Hills. Also, the combination of strong winds and heavy wet snow will yield the possibility of power outages across RI and eastern MA. For Nantucket, issued a high wind warning, as model soundings and cross sections have 70 kt of wind aloft extending downward to 500 ft!
Impacts: Heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected from roughly late Sunday night/early Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Travel will be nearly impossible, with snowfall rates 2-4" per hour at times during this period. Also, heavy wet snow will combine with strong winds, yielding the potential for power outages across RI and eastern MA.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Coastal Flooding
A storm surge of 2-3' at the time of high tide early Monday morning (2AM-5AM) will likely yield moderate coastal flooding from Plymouth county southward to Cape Cod and the Islands. Therefore a coastal flood warning has been issued for this portion of the coastline. Farther northward from Boston to the NH border, there is more uncertainty, with a higher probability of minor flooding likely. Therefore, we held with a coastal flood watch there. The greatest storm surge (up to 4 ft) appears to occur during low tide Monday (9- 10AM). However, there could be enough storm surge for minor coastal flooding during the late day high tide (3-6pm). Although, given the astro tide is lower and winds will be more northerly, only expecting minor flooding. Nonetheless, a coastal flood watch remains in effect for this second tide Monday to account for any storm track changes, including timing.
CT: Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ002>004.
MA: Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-013>023. Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for MAZ007-015-016. Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MAZ024. High Wind Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ024.
RI: Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE: Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
MA: Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ007-013>023. Coastal Flood Watch from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning for MAZ007-015-016. Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MAZ019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MAZ024. High Wind Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ024.
RI: Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE: Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.
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