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Humidity: 40%
Wind: 16 mph
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Increasing confidence for some accumulating snow Wednesday into Wednesday night across northern MA.
1 Key Message 1
Some snow showers remain possible tonight into Monday morning. Minor accumulations with little to no impacts expected.
2 Key Message 2
More snow showers possible early Tuesday morning/late Monday night.
3 Key Message 3
Multiple rain, snow or mixed wintry precip events possible from mid week into next weekend. Near seasonable temps.
Key Message 1... Some snow showers remain possible tonight into Monday morning. Minor accumulations with little to no impacts expected.
A period of some light snow remains possible tonight into Monday morning, particularly towards the south coast, as a coastal storm passes to our south. Some snow showers in western MA into parts of CT are a possibility as well.
The latest guidance has continued to show a coastal storm associated with a southern stream shortwave track to our south and a northern stream shortwave moves into the northeast from the Great Lakes heading into tonight. Even with these waves tracking at roughly the same time, they don't phase with each other by the time they reach southern New England. We may still see impacts from the coastal storm though, mostly in the way of light snow along the south coast. The northern wave may also bring some light snow showers to parts of the interior; some slightly elevated PWATs there could help facilitate some showers, but not much is expected outside of western MA.
In terms of accumulations, no more than a trace to a few tenths of an inch are expected for both the south coast and parts of the interior. And with daytime highs Monday getting into the mid to upper 30s, the light accumulations that we could pick up overnight will likely melt away during the day. The 75th percentiles have at most a few tenths of an inch for parts of southern CT and western MA, and the 25th percentiles continue to show no accumulations at all.
Key Message 2... More snow showers possible early Tuesday morning/late Monday night.
Drier conditions through the afternoon Monday after any early snow showers towards the south coast. Another shortwave approaches southern New England Monday night into early Tuesday morning and PWATs increase to at/just below 0.5" as it arrives. With the lift from the wave and that increased moisture from some light WAA, some light snow showers and flurries are possible early Tuesday morning. The highest PoPs are in western and central MA into parts of CT, though even then, it is only a slight chance (at or below 20 percent chance). This wave clears out of southern New England by the afternoon, and the already lower chances for some spot snow showers will continue to decrease.
Key Message 3... Multiple rain, snow or mixed wintry precip events possible from mid week into next weekend. Near seasonable temps.
An active Pacific jet with a parade of shortwaves traversing the CONUS will bring an unsettled pattern to New Eng with multiple precip events from midweek into next weekend. The -PNA pattern with modified Pacific flow will keep arctic well to the north but not that mild here with temps mostly averaging around seasonable norms but periods of colder than normal temps possible. While there is high confidence in an unsettled period in SNE, it's a rather complex pattern with many shortwaves moving through the flow leading to lower predictability in the finer details of timing of precip events and distribution of ptype across the region.
There is better agreement that the first system will impact the region sometime Wed into Wed night as shortwave energy lifts NE from the Gt Lakes, although exact timing, axis of heaviest precip and ptype is still in question. The surface boundary will likely set up near or south of SNE coast with a secondary wave tracking along it which should help to lock in low level cold air, especially across northern MA where best chance for accumulating snow. But some of the ensemble members including a majority of EPS members keep axis of snow further N. These are details which will need to be ironed out over the next 24-48 hrs. Low levels are clearly warmer further south and suggest more rain south of the MA Pike although can't rule out some snow here if boundary and low track end up further south. Best chance of plowable snow will be across northern MA. GEFS indicating 40-70% probs for greater than 3 inches of snow in northern MA, while EPS showing 20-40% probs with highest probs to the north.
Model consensus favors mainly dry conditions Thu with temps near or a bit below normal in the 30s as system pulls away and high pres builds in from the north. Then forecast confidence decreases significantly Friday into next weekend as multiple shortwaves within the active subtropical jet approach New Eng from the SW. Lots of uncertainty with how global guidance handles these shortwaves and whether there will be multiple weaker systems Fri through Sun or a stronger storm to impact the region. However, more accumulating snow is possible for portions of SNE during this time period. Overall a very active weather pattern.
A period of some light snow remains possible tonight into Monday morning, particularly towards the south coast, as a coastal storm passes to our south. Some snow showers in western MA into parts of CT are a possibility as well.
The latest guidance has continued to show a coastal storm associated with a southern stream shortwave track to our south and a northern stream shortwave moves into the northeast from the Great Lakes heading into tonight. Even with these waves tracking at roughly the same time, they don't phase with each other by the time they reach southern New England. We may still see impacts from the coastal storm though, mostly in the way of light snow along the south coast. The northern wave may also bring some light snow showers to parts of the interior; some slightly elevated PWATs there could help facilitate some showers, but not much is expected outside of western MA.
In terms of accumulations, no more than a trace to a few tenths of an inch are expected for both the south coast and parts of the interior. And with daytime highs Monday getting into the mid to upper 30s, the light accumulations that we could pick up overnight will likely melt away during the day. The 75th percentiles have at most a few tenths of an inch for parts of southern CT and western MA, and the 25th percentiles continue to show no accumulations at all.
Key Message 2... More snow showers possible early Tuesday morning/late Monday night.
Drier conditions through the afternoon Monday after any early snow showers towards the south coast. Another shortwave approaches southern New England Monday night into early Tuesday morning and PWATs increase to at/just below 0.5" as it arrives. With the lift from the wave and that increased moisture from some light WAA, some light snow showers and flurries are possible early Tuesday morning. The highest PoPs are in western and central MA into parts of CT, though even then, it is only a slight chance (at or below 20 percent chance). This wave clears out of southern New England by the afternoon, and the already lower chances for some spot snow showers will continue to decrease.
Key Message 3... Multiple rain, snow or mixed wintry precip events possible from mid week into next weekend. Near seasonable temps.
An active Pacific jet with a parade of shortwaves traversing the CONUS will bring an unsettled pattern to New Eng with multiple precip events from midweek into next weekend. The -PNA pattern with modified Pacific flow will keep arctic well to the north but not that mild here with temps mostly averaging around seasonable norms but periods of colder than normal temps possible. While there is high confidence in an unsettled period in SNE, it's a rather complex pattern with many shortwaves moving through the flow leading to lower predictability in the finer details of timing of precip events and distribution of ptype across the region.
There is better agreement that the first system will impact the region sometime Wed into Wed night as shortwave energy lifts NE from the Gt Lakes, although exact timing, axis of heaviest precip and ptype is still in question. The surface boundary will likely set up near or south of SNE coast with a secondary wave tracking along it which should help to lock in low level cold air, especially across northern MA where best chance for accumulating snow. But some of the ensemble members including a majority of EPS members keep axis of snow further N. These are details which will need to be ironed out over the next 24-48 hrs. Low levels are clearly warmer further south and suggest more rain south of the MA Pike although can't rule out some snow here if boundary and low track end up further south. Best chance of plowable snow will be across northern MA. GEFS indicating 40-70% probs for greater than 3 inches of snow in northern MA, while EPS showing 20-40% probs with highest probs to the north.
Model consensus favors mainly dry conditions Thu with temps near or a bit below normal in the 30s as system pulls away and high pres builds in from the north. Then forecast confidence decreases significantly Friday into next weekend as multiple shortwaves within the active subtropical jet approach New Eng from the SW. Lots of uncertainty with how global guidance handles these shortwaves and whether there will be multiple weaker systems Fri through Sun or a stronger storm to impact the region. However, more accumulating snow is possible for portions of SNE during this time period. Overall a very active weather pattern.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: None
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