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Humidity: 60%
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No major changes to the forecast. The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New England.
1 Key Message 1
Tranquil/seasonable high temps Fri/Sat with dry weather outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late Fri night/Sat am.
* The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New England.
* Above normal temperatures for the first half next week.
* The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New England.
* Above normal temperatures for the first half next week.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Tranquil/seasonable high temps Fri/Sat with dry weather outside a few brief spot flurries/snow showers possible late Fri night/Sat am.
A ridge of high pressure to our west coupled with the mid-level trough axis to our east will result in mainly dry/tranquil weather through Sat. A moisture starved shortwave may bring a few brief spot flurries/snow showers to the region late Fri night-Sat morning...but nothing more than that expected. Otherwise...seasonable highs mainly in the 30s Fri and probably upper 30s/near 40 by Sat. Good radiational cooling coupled with a deep snowpack will allow for lows tonight in the single digits and lower teens in many locations to the upper teens to around 20 in the urban heat islands of Boston and Providence. Low temps Fri night will be milder with more clouds mainly in the teens to between 20 and 25 in the urban centers of Boston and Providence.
Key Message 2... The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New England.
Guidance is still indicating a strong mid-level shortwave crossing the Texas panhandle this weekend and continuing to track east. The northern stream shortwave with decent mid-level troughing moving across the Great Lakes and into the northeast may be what helps keep this potential storm away from southern New England. Most ensemble members across the guidance suites have continued to trend this system to the south of southern New England, passing Sunday night into Monday. However, a few members within all the ensembles do still have this system taking a closer track, exiting offshore of Virginia moreso than the Carolinas and south. Deterministic guidance does also have this system remaining well to our south and offshore, and with a weaker temperature gradient, precipitation may not expand very far north from the center of the low. With a few ensemble members in each of the suites still indicating a slightly more north track that would end up impacting the region, confidence is still somewhat low regarding this system's track. Though with the overall continuation of the more southern track, we trended PoPs down once more for Sunday night into Monday.
Key Message 3... Above normal temps for the first half of next week.
Temperatures continue to improve next week, becoming above normal. Temperatures aloft start to approach 0°C (32°F) and exceed 0°C (32°F) early in the week into Wednesday and more W to SW flow kicks in over the region within that timeframe. Ensembles, namely the GEFS and GEPS, were even getting probs of 50F highs up to 20 percent for SE MA Tuesday and Wednesday. If we get good SW flow, then we could see this actualized. Generally, though, highs in the 40s can be expected for next week. Tuesday night and Wednesday night could even see some spots remain above freezing.
Ensembles are signaling the chance for another system approaching southern New England sometime in the latter half of the week, which will be something to monitor in upcoming forecasts. As this event is roughly a week out, details are uncertain at this time.
A ridge of high pressure to our west coupled with the mid-level trough axis to our east will result in mainly dry/tranquil weather through Sat. A moisture starved shortwave may bring a few brief spot flurries/snow showers to the region late Fri night-Sat morning...but nothing more than that expected. Otherwise...seasonable highs mainly in the 30s Fri and probably upper 30s/near 40 by Sat. Good radiational cooling coupled with a deep snowpack will allow for lows tonight in the single digits and lower teens in many locations to the upper teens to around 20 in the urban heat islands of Boston and Providence. Low temps Fri night will be milder with more clouds mainly in the teens to between 20 and 25 in the urban centers of Boston and Providence.
Key Message 2... The coastal storm threat Sunday night into Monday continues to diminish with the track likely too far south of southern New England.
Guidance is still indicating a strong mid-level shortwave crossing the Texas panhandle this weekend and continuing to track east. The northern stream shortwave with decent mid-level troughing moving across the Great Lakes and into the northeast may be what helps keep this potential storm away from southern New England. Most ensemble members across the guidance suites have continued to trend this system to the south of southern New England, passing Sunday night into Monday. However, a few members within all the ensembles do still have this system taking a closer track, exiting offshore of Virginia moreso than the Carolinas and south. Deterministic guidance does also have this system remaining well to our south and offshore, and with a weaker temperature gradient, precipitation may not expand very far north from the center of the low. With a few ensemble members in each of the suites still indicating a slightly more north track that would end up impacting the region, confidence is still somewhat low regarding this system's track. Though with the overall continuation of the more southern track, we trended PoPs down once more for Sunday night into Monday.
Key Message 3... Above normal temps for the first half of next week.
Temperatures continue to improve next week, becoming above normal. Temperatures aloft start to approach 0°C (32°F) and exceed 0°C (32°F) early in the week into Wednesday and more W to SW flow kicks in over the region within that timeframe. Ensembles, namely the GEFS and GEPS, were even getting probs of 50F highs up to 20 percent for SE MA Tuesday and Wednesday. If we get good SW flow, then we could see this actualized. Generally, though, highs in the 40s can be expected for next week. Tuesday night and Wednesday night could even see some spots remain above freezing.
Ensembles are signaling the chance for another system approaching southern New England sometime in the latter half of the week, which will be something to monitor in upcoming forecasts. As this event is roughly a week out, details are uncertain at this time.
CT: None
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ231-251-256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255.
MA: None
RI: None
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ231-251-256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ250-254-255.
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