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Cold Weather Advisories for dangerously cold wind chills were expanded to include Cape Cod tonight into Fri morning. Winter Storm Watches were issued for the Cape and Islands for late Sat night through Sunday night. However, latest trends favor a more offshore storm track and somewhat less impacts across southern New England.
1 Key Message 1
Dangerously cold wind chills tonight into Friday morning, and possibly Fri night into Sat morning.
2 Key Message 2
Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands.
3 Key Message 3
Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerously cold wind chills tonight into Friday morning, and possibly Fri night into Sat morning.
A reinforcing shot of arctic air will move into New Eng tonight and Friday as a northern stream trough drops south from Canada. The trough passage will be accompanied by a surge of gusty WNW winds to 15-25 mph tonight into Fri morning. This coupled with lows of -5 to +5F will result in wind chills of -10 to -20F for much of SNE, with the coldest readings over the higher elevations where wind chills down to -20 to -25F are expected. We will continue the cold weather advisory for dangerous wind chills for much of SNE, except the Cape and Islands where wind chills will fall a bit short of -10F criteria.
Winds drop off a bit Fri night but low temps are expected to be even colder with lows zero to -10F away from the immediate coast. There will be enough wind to generate similar wind chills of -10 to -20F late Fri night into Sat morning. Cold weather advisories will likely need to be extended.
Dry weather expected through Sat, with mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights. The column is quite dry through Sat.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate a coastal storm moving off the NC/SC coast, rapidly intensifying as it moves north and east. Previous guidance has had a large amount of uncertainty regarding where exactly the low may pass in relation to southern New England, with some models taking a more northerly track and some a more southerly. The latest suite of guidance continues to be highly variable regarding the potential for accumulating snow and strong gusty winds Sunday into Sunday night. The 12z ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles have trended the general location of the surface low further south and east than previous runs, with the latest Grand Ensemble and subsequent clusters showing a positively- tilted upper trough, possibly leading to the latest southeastward trend. If the storm tracks further south and east, the highest winds and snowfall totals would be confined to the southern Cape and Islands, while a sharp gradient sets up somewhere over the South Shore, leading to significantly decreased chances of Boston, Providence, and the I-95 corridor seeing moderate impacts.
GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing PWATs >0.33" over the far southeastern portion of the Cape and Nantucket, with a sharp, decreasing gradient over the northern portion of the Cape. The ECMWF ensemble has taken a more moisture-loaded approach, bringing PWATs ranging from 0.33" along the I-95 corridor to 0.66" on Nantucket. NBM 5.0 probabilities of seeing 6" of snow in 24 hours over the Cape and Islands have decreased from 50%-65% last night to 40%-50% with the latest run, with probabilites for the I-95 corridor dropping from 35%-50% to near 25%. The latest WSSI-P probabilities for Moderate Impacts has also significantly decreased to 40% over the Cape and Islands and 20% across the I-95 corridor. After coordinating with the neighboring offices and WPC, felt moderately confident in issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the Cape and Islands beginning after midnight Sunday morning.
Regardless of how far southeast the low passes, expecting a wide- reaching, intense pressure gradient to whip up winds Sunday. Latest NBM probabilites of reaching 55mph winds gusts (storm force winds) across the inner waters range from 45% to 65% and >75% across the outer waters, and these probs have remained steady over the last 24 hours. Therefore, felt confident in issuing Storm Watches for the outer waters, including Cape Cod Bay.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday.
A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the eastern Massachusetts coastline Sunday into Monday.
High astronomical tides combined with at least a 1 to 3 foot storm surge and strong N/NE winds will bring the potential for minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts coast during high tides Sunday morning, Sunday evening, and Monday around midday.
Based upon the projected offshore track of the coastal storm, the highest winds and storm surge should be focused closer to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Marthas Vineyard where the higher chances of seeing moderate flooding exists. However, building seas of 20-25 feet offshore will add additional impacts to the ocean exposed coastline from Plymouth County north to the Merrimack River, so despite lower water levels, those areas could still see moderate impacts.
Additionally, the long overwater fetch should result in significant beach and dune erosion, especially in areas that have been hard hit in recent years including Newburyport/Plum Island, Sandwich, Chatham, and Edgartown.
Should the storm trend farther offshore, the threat of coastal flooding would decrease, but given the high astronomical tides it is reasonable to expect at least minor coastal flooding. A trend closer to New England would raise the odds of moderate flooding over much of the coastline, but the chances of reaching major flood impacts would still remain very low.
As a reminder, minor flooding refers to shallow flooding up to 1 foot deep and can result in temporary road closures on more vulnerable coastal roads. Moderate flooding refers to flooding 1 to 3 feet deep and can cause more widespread road closures, damage to shorefront property, and debris on coastal roads from large waves. Vehicles left in flood prone areas can also be flooded.
A reinforcing shot of arctic air will move into New Eng tonight and Friday as a northern stream trough drops south from Canada. The trough passage will be accompanied by a surge of gusty WNW winds to 15-25 mph tonight into Fri morning. This coupled with lows of -5 to +5F will result in wind chills of -10 to -20F for much of SNE, with the coldest readings over the higher elevations where wind chills down to -20 to -25F are expected. We will continue the cold weather advisory for dangerous wind chills for much of SNE, except the Cape and Islands where wind chills will fall a bit short of -10F criteria.
Winds drop off a bit Fri night but low temps are expected to be even colder with lows zero to -10F away from the immediate coast. There will be enough wind to generate similar wind chills of -10 to -20F late Fri night into Sat morning. Cold weather advisories will likely need to be extended.
Dry weather expected through Sat, with mostly sunny days and mainly clear nights. The column is quite dry through Sat.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Still a large degree of uncertainty surrounding a winter storm Sunday into Sunday night. Strong gusty winds and accumulating snow are certainly within the realm of possibility for the Cape and Islands.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance continues to indicate a coastal storm moving off the NC/SC coast, rapidly intensifying as it moves north and east. Previous guidance has had a large amount of uncertainty regarding where exactly the low may pass in relation to southern New England, with some models taking a more northerly track and some a more southerly. The latest suite of guidance continues to be highly variable regarding the potential for accumulating snow and strong gusty winds Sunday into Sunday night. The 12z ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian ensembles have trended the general location of the surface low further south and east than previous runs, with the latest Grand Ensemble and subsequent clusters showing a positively- tilted upper trough, possibly leading to the latest southeastward trend. If the storm tracks further south and east, the highest winds and snowfall totals would be confined to the southern Cape and Islands, while a sharp gradient sets up somewhere over the South Shore, leading to significantly decreased chances of Boston, Providence, and the I-95 corridor seeing moderate impacts.
GFS and Canadian ensembles are showing PWATs >0.33" over the far southeastern portion of the Cape and Nantucket, with a sharp, decreasing gradient over the northern portion of the Cape. The ECMWF ensemble has taken a more moisture-loaded approach, bringing PWATs ranging from 0.33" along the I-95 corridor to 0.66" on Nantucket. NBM 5.0 probabilities of seeing 6" of snow in 24 hours over the Cape and Islands have decreased from 50%-65% last night to 40%-50% with the latest run, with probabilites for the I-95 corridor dropping from 35%-50% to near 25%. The latest WSSI-P probabilities for Moderate Impacts has also significantly decreased to 40% over the Cape and Islands and 20% across the I-95 corridor. After coordinating with the neighboring offices and WPC, felt moderately confident in issuing a Winter Storm Watch for the Cape and Islands beginning after midnight Sunday morning.
Regardless of how far southeast the low passes, expecting a wide- reaching, intense pressure gradient to whip up winds Sunday. Latest NBM probabilites of reaching 55mph winds gusts (storm force winds) across the inner waters range from 45% to 65% and >75% across the outer waters, and these probs have remained steady over the last 24 hours. Therefore, felt confident in issuing Storm Watches for the outer waters, including Cape Cod Bay.
KEY MESSAGE 3... Minor to moderate coastal flooding possible Sunday into Monday.
A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the eastern Massachusetts coastline Sunday into Monday.
High astronomical tides combined with at least a 1 to 3 foot storm surge and strong N/NE winds will bring the potential for minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts coast during high tides Sunday morning, Sunday evening, and Monday around midday.
Based upon the projected offshore track of the coastal storm, the highest winds and storm surge should be focused closer to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Marthas Vineyard where the higher chances of seeing moderate flooding exists. However, building seas of 20-25 feet offshore will add additional impacts to the ocean exposed coastline from Plymouth County north to the Merrimack River, so despite lower water levels, those areas could still see moderate impacts.
Additionally, the long overwater fetch should result in significant beach and dune erosion, especially in areas that have been hard hit in recent years including Newburyport/Plum Island, Sandwich, Chatham, and Edgartown.
Should the storm trend farther offshore, the threat of coastal flooding would decrease, but given the high astronomical tides it is reasonable to expect at least minor coastal flooding. A trend closer to New England would raise the odds of moderate flooding over much of the coastline, but the chances of reaching major flood impacts would still remain very low.
As a reminder, minor flooding refers to shallow flooding up to 1 foot deep and can result in temporary road closures on more vulnerable coastal roads. Moderate flooding refers to flooding 1 to 3 feet deep and can cause more widespread road closures, damage to shorefront property, and debris on coastal roads from large waves. Vehicles left in flood prone areas can also be flooded.
CT: Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for CTZ002>004.
MA: Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>022-026. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for MAZ022>024.
RI: Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254-256. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ231-232-250-254>256. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254>256. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for ANZ251.
MA: Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for MAZ002>022-026. Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for MAZ022>024.
RI: Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE: Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-235>237-250-251-254-256. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for ANZ231-232-250-254>256. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>234-255. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday night for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ250-254>256. Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for ANZ251.
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